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Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Weekly Propagation Forecast Update


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2007 Sep 04 2124 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 August - 02 September 2007

Solar activity was very low.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during 28 - 31 August and again on 02 September.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels during 27 - 28 August with brief minor to major storm periods detected at middle and high latitudes, respectively, on 28 August. Activity declined to quiet levels at all latitudes during 29 - 30 August. Activity increased to quiet to unsettled levels during 31 August - 01 September with active to minor storm periods detected at high latitudes on 01 September. A further increase to quiet to minor storm levels occurred on the last day of the period with major storm periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar wind data indicated two recurrent high speed streams affected the field during the summary period. The first stream commenced late on 26 August and eventually reached a peak velocity of 695 km/sec at 27/1848 UTC. The proton density increase in advance of this stream reached a peak of 71 p/cc at 26/1627 UTC. IMF variance associated with the stream included a peak IMF Bt of 21 nT at 26/1711 UTC and a minimum IMF Bz reading of -12 nT at 26/1952 UTC. The second stream commenced late on 31 August and eventually reached a peak velocity of 682 km/sec at 02/2141 UTC. The proton density increase in advance of this stream was negligible. IMF variance associated with the stream included a peak IMF Bt of 11 nT at 01/2354 UTC and a minimum IMF Bz reading of -09 nT at 02/00001 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 September - 01 October 2007

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during 05 - 10 September and 24 September - 01 October.
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Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on 05 September. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on 06 September due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during 07 - 28 September. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels during 29 - 30 September as another recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream affects the field. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 01 October as coronal hole effects subside.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2007 Sep 04 2124 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2007 Sep 04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2007 Sep 05 68 5 2
2007 Sep 06 68 15 4
2007 Sep 07 68 10 3
2007 Sep 08 68 5 2
2007 Sep 09 68 5 2
2007 Sep 10 68 5 2
2007 Sep 11 68 8 3
2007 Sep 12 68 8 3
2007 Sep 13 68 5 2
2007 Sep 14 68 5 2
2007 Sep 15 68 5 2
2007 Sep 16 68 5 2
2007 Sep 17 70 5 2
2007 Sep 18 70 5 2
2007 Sep 19 70 5 2
2007 Sep 20 70 5 2
2007 Sep 21 70 8 3
2007 Sep 22 70 10 3
2007 Sep 23 70 10 3
2007 Sep 24 70 10 3
2007 Sep 25 70 8 3
2007 Sep 26 70 5 2
2007 Sep 27 70 5 2
2007 Sep 28 70 10 3
2007 Sep 29 70 20 5
2007 Sep 30 70 15 4
2007 Oct 01 70 8 3
(NOAA)