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Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Weekly Propagation Forecast Update


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2007 Sep 12 0054 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 - 09 September 2007

Solar activity was very low. Isolated B-class flares were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during 03 - 06 September and 08 - 09 September.

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during 03 - 04 September. Activity increased to quiet to active levels during 05 - 07 September. Activity decreased to quiet levels during 08 - 09 September. ACE real-time solar wind data indicated two recurrent coronal hole high-speed wind streams affected the field during the period. The first began on 01 September, then subsided on 05 September. Peak velocity associated with this stream was 682 km/sec
at 02/2141 UTC, while peak Bt was 10.5 nT at 01/2354 UTC and minimum Bz was -8.9 nT at 02/0001 UTC. The second high-speed stream began on 06 September, then subsided on 09 September. Peak velocity associated with this stream was 579 km/sec at 07/0049 UTC, while
peak Bt was 9.7 nT at 06/2115 UTC and minimum Bz was -8.5 nT at 06/2102 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

12 September - 08 October 2007

Solar activity is expected to be very low.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during 24 September - 08 October.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 12 - 28 September. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels during 29 - 30 September due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during 01 - 02 October as the stream subsides. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on 03 October due to another recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during the rest of the period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2007 Sep 12 0054 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2007 Sep 11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2007 Sep 12 67 5 2
2007 Sep 13 67 5 2
2007 Sep 14 67 8 3
2007 Sep 15 67 5 2
2007 Sep 16 67 5 2
2007 Sep 17 67 5 2
2007 Sep 18 67 5 2
2007 Sep 19 70 5 2
2007 Sep 20 70 5 2
2007 Sep 21 70 8 3
2007 Sep 22 70 10 3
2007 Sep 23 70 10 3
2007 Sep 24 70 10 3
2007 Sep 25 70 5 2
2007 Sep 26 70 5 2
2007 Sep 27 70 5 2
2007 Sep 28 70 10 3
2007 Sep 29 70 20 5
2007 Sep 30 70 15 4
2007 Oct 01 70 8 3
2007 Oct 02 68 5 2
2007 Oct 03 68 15 4
2007 Oct 04 68 10 3
2007 Oct 05 68 5 2
2007 Oct 06 68 5 2
2007 Oct 07 68 5 2
2007 Oct 08 68 5 2
(NOAA)