Pages

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2009 Apr 14 1946 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 - 12 April 2009


Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels 11 - 12 April.

The summary period began with solar wind speeds at about 400 km/s. Velocities slowly decreased to about 300 km/s by late on 08 April. At about 08/2015 UTC, solar wind speeds indicated a fairly sharp rise in velocity to about 475 km/s by 09/0300 UTC. From that time
forward, wind speeds gradually increased to near 570 km/s by 11/1700 UTC and subsequently, speeds gradually decreased to about 500 km/s by the end of the summary period. From late on 08 April to late on 09 April, the Bz component of the IMF varied between +7 to -7 nT.
Otherwise, Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 3 nT. This increase in wind speed and IMF variability was due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled periods at middle latitudes, while high latitudes observed
quiet to active conditions with the one isolated minor storm period observed midday on 11 April. The period ended with quiet levels across all latitudes.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 April - 11 May 2009

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to increase to high levels during 08 - 12 May. Normal flux levels are expected during the rest of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through 20 April. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during 21 - 22 April due to a recurrent coronal
hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during 23 April to 05 May. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during 06 - 09 May with active levels possible on the 6th, all due to another recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during 10 - 11 May.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2009 Apr 14 1947 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2009 Apr 14
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 Apr 15 70 5 2
2009 Apr 16 70 5 2
2009 Apr 17 70 8 3
2009 Apr 18 70 5 2
2009 Apr 19 70 5 2
2009 Apr 20 70 5 2
2009 Apr 21 70 8 3
2009 Apr 22 70 8 3
2009 Apr 23 72 5 2
2009 Apr 24 72 5 2
2009 Apr 25 72 5 2
2009 Apr 26 72 5 2
2009 Apr 27 72 5 2
2009 Apr 28 72 5 2
2009 Apr 29 72 5 2
2009 Apr 30 70 5 2
2009 May 01 70 5 2
2009 May 02 70 5 2
2009 May 03 70 5 2
2009 May 04 70 5 2
2009 May 05 70 5 2
2009 May 06 70 15 4
2009 May 07 70 8 3
2009 May 08 70 8 3
2009 May 09 70 8 3
2009 May 10 70 5 2
2009 May 11 70 5 2
(NOAA)