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Tuesday, July 07, 2009

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2009 Jul 07 2051 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 June - 05 July 2009

Solar activity was very low to low. No flares were observed during 29 June - 02 July. Region 1024 (S27, L=247, class/area Dsi/170 on 05 July) emerged rapidly on 03 July. It produced frequent B-class flares during 04 July. Activity rose to low levels on 05 July due to a C2/Sf flare at 05/0713 UTC from Region 1024 as it continued to grow in spot count and magnetic complexity.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels early on 29 June, then decreased to mostly quiet levels for the remainder of the period. ACE solar wind measurements indicated the 29 June active conditions were associated with the onset of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities increased from 303 to 569 km/sec during 29 June, then gradually decreased during the remainder of the period (minimum 310 km/sec at 04/2301 UTC).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 July - 03 August 2009


Solar activity is expected to be very low (Region 1024 began to gradually decay and simplify on 06 July).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on 08 July. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels during 09 - 10 July due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during the rest of the period with a chance for unsettled levels on 21 and 25 July
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2009 Jul 07 2051 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2009 Jul 07
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 Jul 08 70 5 2
2009 Jul 09 70 8 3
2009 Jul 10 70 7 3
2009 Jul 11 70 5 2
2009 Jul 12 68 5 2
2009 Jul 13 68 5 2
2009 Jul 14 68 5 2
2009 Jul 15 68 5 2
2009 Jul 16 68 5 2
2009 Jul 17 68 5 2
2009 Jul 18 68 5 2
2009 Jul 19 68 5 2
2009 Jul 20 68 5 2
2009 Jul 21 68 10 3
2009 Jul 22 68 5 2
2009 Jul 23 68 5 2
2009 Jul 24 68 5 2
2009 Jul 25 70 8 3
2009 Jul 26 70 5 2
2009 Jul 27 70 5 2
2009 Jul 28 70 5 2
2009 Jul 29 70 5 2
2009 Jul 30 70 5 2
2009 Jul 31 70 5 2
2009 Aug 01 70 5 2
2009 Aug 02 70 5 2
2009 Aug 03 70 5 2
(NOAA)