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Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2009 Jul 21 2301 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
Weekly Highland & Forecast Activity 13 - 19 July 2009
Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels early on 13 July. From midday on 13 July through mid-afternoon on 14 July, activity increased to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods. Solar wind data at ACE indicated the increase in activity was associated with a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind speed increased from 330 km/s at 13/1109 UTC to 569 km/s at 14/0213 UTC. Intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz were observed between 13/1017 - 14/0115 UTC, with a minimum of -10 nT at 13/2347 UTC. Wind speeds gradually decreased to 276 km/s, beginning at 14/2050 UTC and lasting through the end of the period. Geomagnetic activity decreased to predominantly quiet levels on 15 July. The remainder of
the period was quiet.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 July - 17 August 2009

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during 22 July - 04 August. Quiet levels, with isolated unsettled periods, are expected on 05-06 August due to a recurrent coronal hole. Activity is expected to decrease to predominantly quiet levels during the rest of the period, with possible isolated unsettled periods on 05-06 August and 09-10 August due to recurrent coronal holes.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt:Issued: 2009 Jul 21 2301 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2009 Jul 21
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 Jul 22 68 5 2
2009 Jul 23 68 5 2
2009 Jul 24 68 5 2
2009 Jul 25 69 5 2
2009 Jul 26 70 5 2
2009 Jul 27 70 5 2
2009 Jul 28 70 5 2
2009 Jul 29 70 5 2
2009 Jul 30 70 5 2
2009 Jul 31 70 5 2
2009 Aug 01 70 5 2
2009 Aug 02 70 5 2
2009 Aug 03 70 5 2
2009 Aug 04 70 5 2
2009 Aug 05 70 8 3
2009 Aug 06 70 7 2
2009 Aug 07 69 5 2
2009 Aug 08 68 5 2
2009 Aug 09 68 8 3
2009 Aug 10 68 6 2
2009 Aug 11 68 5 2
2009 Aug 12 68 5 2
2009 Aug 13 68 5 2
2009 Aug 14 68 5 2
2009 Aug 15 68 5 2
2009 Aug 16 68 5 2
2009 Aug 17 68 5 2
(NOAA)