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Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2009 Sep 22 1921 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts


Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
14 - 20 September 2009

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during most of the period with brief unsettled periods detected on 14, 17, and 20 September. ACE solar wind measurements indicated a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream was in progress during the period. Velocities ranged from 309 to 504 km/sec. IMF Bz was variable in the +5 to -5
nT range during most of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 September - 19 October 2009

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels through the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during 23 - 25 September. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during 26 - 27 September with a chance for brief active periods due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet conditions are expected during 28 September - 19 October.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2009 Sep 22 1921 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2009 Sep 22

# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 Sep 23 76 5 2
2009 Sep 24 77 5 2
2009 Sep 25 77 5 2
2009 Sep 26 77 12 4
2009 Sep 27 77 8 3
2009 Sep 28 77 5 2
2009 Sep 29 77 5 2
2009 Sep 30 77 5 2
2009 Oct 01 77 5 2
2009 Oct 02 77 5 2
2009 Oct 03 75 5 2
2009 Oct 04 72 5 2
2009 Oct 05 69 5 2
2009 Oct 06 69 5 2
2009 Oct 07 69 5 2
2009 Oct 08 69 5 2
2009 Oct 09 69 5 2
2009 Oct 10 69 5 2
2009 Oct 11 69 5 2
2009 Oct 12 69 5 2
2009 Oct 13 69 5 2
2009 Oct 14 69 5 2
2009 Oct 15 69 5 2
2009 Oct 16 70 5 2
2009 Oct 17 70 5 2
2009 Oct 18 72 5 2
2009 Oct 19 74 5 2
(NOAA)

Posted Tuesday September 22, 2009 at http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o1.htm
and http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm

At 2119 UTC today fall begins in the northern hemisphere and spring begins in the southern hemisphere.

Yet another new solar cycle 24 sunspot group has emerged in the NE quadrant of the sun. It should receive #11027 later today from NOAA/SWPC.

Sunspot group #11026 contains a simple alpha magnetic signature capable of producing very small B class solar flares.
(Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O, Lakeland, FL)