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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:Issued: 2010 Jun 29 2051 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html


Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
21 - 27 June 2010

Solar activity was very low. Region 1082 (N27, L=306, class/area Dro/040 on 21 June) produced isolated low-level B-class flares. Region 1082 quietly departed the west limb early on 27 June.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during 21 - 22 June. Fluxes were at normal to moderate levels during 23 - 27 June.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during 21 - 22 June. Activity decreased to quiet levels at all latitudes on 23 June. Field activity returned to quiet to unsettled levels during 24 - 25 June. A further increase to quiet to active levels occurred during 26 - 27 June. ACE solar wind measurements indicated the increased activity during 25 - 27 June was due to a recurrent co-rotating interaction region/coronal hole high-speed wind stream (CIR/CH HSS). Solar wind velocities began to increase on 26 June and reached a high of 571 km/s at 27/1416 UTC. Interplanetary magnetic field changes associated with the CIR/CH HSS included increased Bt (peak 12 nT at 25/2123 UTC) and intermittent periods of southward Bz (minimum -10 nT at 26/0408 UTC).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 June - 26 July 2010


Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during 30 June - 10 July, 14 – 19 July, and 26 July. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected during the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels during 30 June - 01 July due to a recurrent CIR/CH HSS. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during 02 - 04 July. A further decrease to quiet levels is expected during 05 - 11 July. Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during 12 - 14 July due to a recurrent CIR/CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during 15 - 22 July. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 23 - 24 July due to a recurrent CIR/CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during 25 - 26 July.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jun 29 2051 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Jun 29
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Jun 30 75 15 4
2010 Jul 01 75 12 4
2010 Jul 02 75 10 3
2010 Jul 03 75 10 3
2010 Jul 04 75 8 3
2010 Jul 05 75 5 2
2010 Jul 06 74 5 2
2010 Jul 07 74 5 2
2010 Jul 08 74 5 2
2010 Jul 09 74 5 2
2010 Jul 10 74 5 2
2010 Jul 11 72 5 2
2010 Jul 12 70 8 3
2010 Jul 13 70 10 3
2010 Jul 14 70 8 3
2010 Jul 15 70 5 2
2010 Jul 16 70 5 2
2010 Jul 17 70 5 2
2010 Jul 18 72 5 2
2010 Jul 19 74 5 2
2010 Jul 20 74 5 2
2010 Jul 21 74 5 2
2010 Jul 22 74 5 2
2010 Jul 23 74 15 4
2010 Jul 24 74 12 4
2010 Jul 25 74 10 3
2010 Jul 26 74 8 3
(NOAA)