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Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Weekly Propagation Forcast Bulletins




Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Mar 11 0413 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 March 2013

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels. A majority of the week was dominated by very low levels with only B-class events observed on 04, 06 and 08 - 10 March. Activity increased to
moderate levels on 05 March when Region 1686 (S13, L=263, class/area Dac/140 on 06 March) produced an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 05/0754 UTC. Associated with this event were weak, low frequency radio emissions including a Type II signature with an estimated shock velocity of 1011 km/s. Later on 05 March, this region produced a C1 event at 2044 UTC as well as another C1 event at 08/1644 UTC as it rotated off the visible disk. The other spotted regions on the disk were quiet and stable through the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the week.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels 04 - 08 March, reaching a peak flux of 7905 pfu at 06/1925 UTC. Flux levels decayed to moderate levels on 09 - 10
March.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels with an isolated unsettled period observed at 05/0000 - 0300 UTC. Solar wind speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged from   high of about 500 km/s early on 04 March and exhibited a slow, steady decay in speed through the week, ending the period near 340 km/s. Total field measurements ranged from 1 nT to 9 nT while  interplanetary magnetic field Bz ranged between +/- 5 nT. The Phi angle began the period in a mostly negative (towards) orientation through about 06/0800 UTC. Through the remainder of the period, field orientation was variable, shifting from negative to positive (away).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 March - 06 April 2013

Solar activity is likely to be low through the period. A slight chance for M-class activity exists through 16 March while Region 1689 remains on the disk, and again from 21 March - 03 April with
the return of old Region 1686 (S12, L=263).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 28 March. Moderate to high levels are possible from 29 March - 04 April with
the return of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Active periods are possible on 28 March due to CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Mar 11 0413 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-03-11
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Mar 11     120           5          2
2013 Mar 12     120           5          2
2013 Mar 13     120           5          2
2013 Mar 14     120           5          2
2013 Mar 15     120           5          2
2013 Mar 16     115           5          2
2013 Mar 17     115           5          2
2013 Mar 18     110           5          2
2013 Mar 19     105           5          2
2013 Mar 20     100           5          2
2013 Mar 21     100           8          3
2013 Mar 22      95           5          2
2013 Mar 23      95           5          2
2013 Mar 24      95           5          2
2013 Mar 25     100           5          2
2013 Mar 26     100           5          2
2013 Mar 27     105           5          2
2013 Mar 28     110          18          4
2013 Mar 29     110          10          3
2013 Mar 30     110           5          2
2013 Mar 31     110           5          2
2013 Apr 01     115           5          2
2013 Apr 02     115           5          2
2013 Apr 03     115           5          2
2013 Apr 04     120           5          2
2013 Apr 05     120           5          2
2013 Apr 06     120           5          2
(NOAA)