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Monday, January 05, 2015

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jan 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 05-Jan 07 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 05-Jan 07 2015

            Jan 05     Jan 06     Jan 07
00-03UT        5 (G1)     4          3     
03-06UT        3          3          2     
06-09UT        3          2          2     
09-12UT        2          2          2     
12-15UT        3          2          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        4          3          2     

Rationale: There is a slight chance for G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms on days one and two Jan 05-06 in response to a high speed solar wind stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 05-Jan 07 2015

              Jan 05  Jan 06  Jan 07
S1 or greater    5%     10%     10%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jan 04 2015 1536 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 05-Jan 07 2015

              Jan 05        Jan 06        Jan 07
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater  10%          10%          10%

Rationale: There is a continued chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts from Region 2253 from Jan 05 to Jan 07.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 05 0314 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2015-01-05
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2015 Jan 05     150          18          5
2015 Jan 06     155          12          3
2015 Jan 07     160           8          3
2015 Jan 08     160          18          4
2015 Jan 09     165          10          3
2015 Jan 10     165          10          3
2015 Jan 11     170          10          3
2015 Jan 12     175           5          2
2015 Jan 13     175           5          2
2015 Jan 14     175           5          2
2015 Jan 15     175           5          2
2015 Jan 16     170           5          2
2015 Jan 17     165           5          2
2015 Jan 18     160           5          2
2015 Jan 19     155           5          2
2015 Jan 20     145           5          2
2015 Jan 21     140          10          3
2015 Jan 22     135          15          3
2015 Jan 23     130           5          2
2015 Jan 24     130          10          3
2015 Jan 25     130          18          4
2015 Jan 26     130          15          3
2015 Jan 27     130           8          3
2015 Jan 28     135           5          2
2015 Jan 29     140          10          3
2015 Jan 30     140          12          3
2015 Jan 31     145          15          3
(NOAA)