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Monday, March 23, 2015

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

A Cranky Sun (NOAA)
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Mar 23 0401 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 March 2015

Solar activity was at moderate levels to begin the week. Region 2297 (S17, L=196 class/area Dkc/420 on 13 Mar ) produced a pair of M1/2n flares at 16/1058 UTC and 17/2334 UTC. Solar activity was at very low to low levels for the rest of the week. Region 2302 (N12, L=189 class/area Cai/080 on 19 Mar) produced a C9/Sf at 18/0751 UTC as well as several low-level C-class events. Region 2297 also continued to produce C-class activity through the remainder of the period. 

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was enhanced following a long duration C9/1f flare observed at 15/0213 UTC. The alert threshold was not reached however, as the peak flux observed was 8.5 pfu at 16/0755 UTC. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit began the period at normal levels but reached high levels from 18-22 Mar with a peak flux of 22,300 pfu on 20 Mar. 

Geomagnetic field activity began at quiet to unsettled levels. Quiet to severe storm levels were observed on 17 Mar followed by minor to major storm levels on 18 Mar due to effects from the 15 Mar CME. Unsettled to minor storm levels were observed on 19-20 Mar due to waning CME effects and the onset of the southern polar coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet to active conditions prevailed on 21 Mar. An isolated major storm period was observed between 0600-0900 UTC on 22 Mar followed by active conditions but settled to quiet levels by 1800 UTC. This activity initially looked to be caused by a co-rotating interactive region ahead of a positive polarity high speed stream but it is difficult to ascertain the true origin as the phi angle settled back to negative following the event. It is possible that a transient caused the increase in activity however, a source could not be easily identified. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 March - 18 April 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels to begin the period. Moderate activity is expected from 01-15 Apr with the anticipated return of old Region 2297 followed by low levels for the remainder of the period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the majority of the period with a chance for high levels following southern polar coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects on 30 Mar-01 Apr, 04-06 Apr, and 14-18 Apr. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor storm levels on 23 Mar followed by unsettled to active levels on 24-25 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 26 Mar. Conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to active levels from 27-31 Mar with minor storms likely on 28-29 Mar due to recurrent southern polar CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail from 01-11 Apr with unsettled conditions possible on 03-04 Apr due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 12-18 Apr with minor storm conditions likely on 13-15 Apr due to a second round of southern polar CH HSS effects. 





Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 23 0401 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2015-03-23
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2015 Mar 23     125          20          5
2015 Mar 24     125          20          4
2015 Mar 25     125          18          4
2015 Mar 26     125           5          2
2015 Mar 27     125          15          4
2015 Mar 28     120          25          5
2015 Mar 29     120          25          5
2015 Mar 30     120          12          4
2015 Mar 31     125          10          3
2015 Apr 01     130           8          3
2015 Apr 02     130          10          3
2015 Apr 03     130          15          4
2015 Apr 04     130          12          4
2015 Apr 05     130           5          2
2015 Apr 06     125           5          2
2015 Apr 07     125           8          3
2015 Apr 08     125           8          3
2015 Apr 09     120           5          2
2015 Apr 10     120           5          2
2015 Apr 11     115           5          2
2015 Apr 12     115          15          3
2015 Apr 13     115          30          5
2015 Apr 14     115          20          5
2015 Apr 15     115          20          5
2015 Apr 16     115          20          4
2015 Apr 17     115          15          3
2015 Apr 18     115          20          4
(NOAA)