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Monday, December 07, 2015

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Dec 07 0214 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Cwww.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.htmlenter
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 November - 06 December 2015

Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2458 (N10, L=356, class/area Dao/160 on 24 Nov), 2462 (N09, L=216, class/area Hax/40 on 04 Dec), 2463 (S11, L=205, class/area Dao/130 on 05 Dec) and 2464
(S12, L=189, class/area Axx/10 on 05 Dec) each produced C-class flares. The largest event of the period was a C4/Sf at 1702 UTC on 04 December. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observeduring the period. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal levels on 30 November and reached moderate levels on 01 December. High levels were observed from 02-04 December before
returning to moderate levels for the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active with an isolated minor storm period from 0600-0900 UTC on 30 November due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Quiet to active levels were observed on 01 December as HSS influence continued. Predominately quiet conditions were observed from 02-04 December with some unsettled periods on 02 and 04 December. Quiet to active levels returned on 05 December due to effects from a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a second positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions dominated 06
December with an isolated minor storm period observed from 0900-1200 UTC. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 December - 02 January 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the majority of the period with high levels likely on 08-09 December, 11-15 December and
29-31 December following anticipated recurrent CH HSS events. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor storm levels on 07 and 08 December due to continued effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Predominately unsettled to active conditions are
expected to from 09-13 December with minor storm periods possible as HSS effects persist. Mostly quiet levels are expected from 14-26 December. Quiet to active conditions are likely on 27 and 28
December due effects from a second recurrent CH HSS followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 29 December as influence subsides. Quiet conditions are expected on 30-31 December. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 01 January with minor storm levels likely on 02 January as a third recurrent CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 07 0214 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2015-12-07
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2015 Dec 07     100          25          5
2015 Dec 08     100          20          5
2015 Dec 09     105          15          3
2015 Dec 10     105          15          3
2015 Dec 11     105          15          3
2015 Dec 12     105          15          3
2015 Dec 13     105          15          3
2015 Dec 14     105           8          3
2015 Dec 15     105           5          2
2015 Dec 16     100          10          4
2015 Dec 17      95           8          3
2015 Dec 18      95           5          2
2015 Dec 19     100           5          2
2015 Dec 20     100           5          2
2015 Dec 21     100           5          2
2015 Dec 22     100           5          2
2015 Dec 23     100           5          2
2015 Dec 24     100           5          2
2015 Dec 25     100           5          2
2015 Dec 26     100           5          2
2015 Dec 27      98          18          4
2015 Dec 28      95          15          3
2015 Dec 29      95          10          3
2015 Dec 30      98           5          2
2015 Dec 31     100           5          2
2016 Jan 01     105          15          3
2016 Jan 02     105          20          5
(NOAA)