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Monday, December 28, 2015

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Dec 28 0317 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 December 2015

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels (R1-Minor) with low activity observed on 25, 26, and 27 Dec, and moderate activity observed on 21, 22, 23, and 24 Dec. The majority of the flare
activity occurred from Regions 2472 and 2473. Region 2472 (N04, L=331, class/area Dai/170 on 23 Dec) produced an M2/Sf at 21/0103 UTC and an M1/1n at 21/1014 UTC before decaying. Region 2473 (S22,  L-331, class/area Fkc/590 on 26 Dec), the largest region on the disk, produced an M1/Sf at 22/0341 UTC, an M4/1f at 23/0040 UTC, and an M1 at 24/0212 UTC. Multiple eruptions were observed in coronagraph imagery, but all were directed off the east limb and none were geoeffective. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to high levels through the entire week 21 December - 27 December. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) storm levels early on 21 Dec due to effects from a CME that erupted on 16 Dec. G2 storm condtions were observed from 21/0000-0600 UTC, with G1 storm conditions occurring in the 21/0600-0900 UTC synoptic period. Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft were enhanced with Bt reaching as high as 18 nT and prolonged periods of southward magnetic field (-Bz). An isolated period of active conditions was observed early on 22 Dec due to lingering CME effects. Active conditions occurred late on 23 Dec due to weak substorming. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 24, 25, and 27 Dec. The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm conditions late on 26 Dec (26/2100-2359 UTC) due to a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 December - 23 January 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels (R1-Minor) throughout the period. Moderate activity is likely through 03 Jan as Regions 2472 (N04, L=329) and 2473 (S22, L=332) rotate off the disk. Low activity levels are expected on 04-23 Jan with moderate activity possible on 15-23 Jan as Regions 2472 and 2473 rotate back onto the visible side of the disk. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 28 Dec - 12 Jan in response to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Normal
to moderate levels are expected on 13-23 Jan. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active levels on 01, 03 Jan with G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 02 Jan due to a positive polarity CH HSS. G1 storm conditions are likely again on 06 Jan with active levels following on 07 Jan due to a positve polarity CH HSS. 10 and 11 Jan are likely to see G1 storm and active conditions, respectively due to a negative polarity CH HSS. Generally quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected from 13-23 Jan. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 28 0317 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2015-12-28
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2015 Dec 28     110          12          3
2015 Dec 29     110          10          3
2015 Dec 30     110          10          3
2015 Dec 31     115           8          3
2016 Jan 01     115          15          4
2016 Jan 02     115          25          5
2016 Jan 03     110          18          4
2016 Jan 04     105          12          3
2016 Jan 05     105           8          3
2016 Jan 06     105          20          5
2016 Jan 07     110          18          4
2016 Jan 08     110          12          4
2016 Jan 09     110          10          3
2016 Jan 10     110          20          5
2016 Jan 11     110          18          4
2016 Jan 12     110          10          3
2016 Jan 13     105           5          2
2016 Jan 14     105           5          2
2016 Jan 15     110           5          2
2016 Jan 16     115           5          2
2016 Jan 17     115           5          2
2016 Jan 18     115           5          2
2016 Jan 19     115           5          2
2016 Jan 20     115           5          2
2016 Jan 21     110          10          3
2016 Jan 22     110          15          3
2016 Jan 23     110          10          3
(NOAA)