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Monday, January 11, 2016

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jan 11 0123 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 January 2016

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Very low activity was observed on 04-05 January and 08-10 January while isolated low activity occured on 06-07 January. A pair of C1 x-ray events were observed from Region 2480 (N02, L=125, class/area Eso/190 on 10 Jan) on 06/1137 UTC and 07/0617 UTC, respectively. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the summary period. 
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at  high levels throughout the 
period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels on 04-05 January and 08-10 January. On 06 January, activity increased to unsettled to active levels with an isolated period of minor storming (G1-Minor) observed early on the 6th. Unsettled to active conditions persisted through late 
on the 7th. This increase in activity was due to the presence of a recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE satellite, indicated an increase in wind speeds early on 06 Jan from about 475 km/s to a peak of 643 km/s at 06/1025 UTC. Wind speeds remained elevated between 575 - 625 km/s through about 07/2000 UTC when a gradual decline to about 430 km/s were observed through the end of the summary period. Total field (Bt) averaged about 5 nT for a majority of the period, but ranged from 7-16 nT from 05/0820 UTC - 06/0131 UTC. The Bz component varied between +/- 4 nT with increased variability recorded between +12 nT to -10 nT from 05/0935 UTC to 06/0022 UTC. The phi angle was in a predominately positive (away for the Sun) orientation throughout the summary period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 January - 06 February 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels from 11-14 January and from 29 January - 06 February. From 15-28 January, activity levels are expected to increase to low to moderate levels (R1-Minor) due to the return of old active Region 2473 (S21, L=334). 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 11-12, 17-22, 26-28 January and 31 January - 02 February. High levels are expected on 13-16, 23-25, 29-30 January and 03-06 February due to enhanced winds from a series of geoeffective CH HSSs. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions on 12-13, 22-23, 28-29 January and 02-03 February with isolated minor storm levels (G1-Minor) likely on 12 and 18 January, all due to a series of recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettle conditions are expected for the remaining days of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 11 0123 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2016-01-11
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2016 Jan 11     110           6          2
2016 Jan 12     108          15          5
2016 Jan 13     105          12          4
2016 Jan 14     100           8          3
2016 Jan 15     105           6          2
2016 Jan 16     105           6          2
2016 Jan 17     105           6          2
2016 Jan 18     105           5          2
2016 Jan 19     100           5          2
2016 Jan 20     100           5          2
2016 Jan 21     100           8          3
2016 Jan 22     100          15          4
2016 Jan 23     105          10          3
2016 Jan 24     105           5          2
2016 Jan 25     105           5          2
2016 Jan 26     105           5          2
2016 Jan 27     110           5          2
2016 Jan 28     110          18          5
2016 Jan 29     105          12          4
2016 Jan 30     105           8          3
2016 Jan 31     105           5          2
2016 Feb 01     110           5          2
2016 Feb 02     110          15          4
2016 Feb 03     110          12          4
2016 Feb 04     110           8          3
2016 Feb 05     110           5          2
2016 Feb 06     110           5          2
(NOAA)