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Monday, August 15, 2016

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Aug 15 0115 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html #
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 August 2016

Solar activity was at very low to low levels with C-class activity observed on 08, 09, 11 and 14 Aug. Region 2574 (N05, L=173,  class/area Dho/290 on 09 Aug) was the most active region recording
six C-class flares. The largest of these was a C8/Sf observed at 09/0042 UTC. Regions 2571 (N13, L=268, class/area Dac/200 on 08 Aug)  and 2572 (N13, L=320, class/area Dao/110 on 07 Aug) each produced weak C-class flares on 08 Aug. The period ended with a C1 flare observed at 14/1936 UTC from an unnumbered region on the NE limb. A few CMEs were observed during the period, but none had an Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the summary period. A maximum of 12,032 pfu was observed at 13/1745 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 08 Aug through early on 12 Aug due to effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet levels were observed for the remainder of the period.
Solar wind speeds reached a maximum speed of about 675 km/s at 10/0830 UTC. Bt ranged between 3-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +7 to -5 nT early in the period. The phi angle was in a predominately positive sector throughout the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 August - 10 September 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity through the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 15, 19-23, 26-28, 31 Aug and 01-10 Sep. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) storm levels on 16 and 30-31 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 15, 17-19, 24-25 Aug and
01-08 Sep, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.


Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 15 0115 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html #
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2016-08-15
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2016 Aug 15      90          12          4
2016 Aug 16      90          18          5
2016 Aug 17      90          10          4
2016 Aug 18      90           8          3
2016 Aug 19      85           8          3
2016 Aug 20      80           5          2
2016 Aug 21      80           5          2
2016 Aug 22      75           5          2
2016 Aug 23      75           5          2
2016 Aug 24      75          15          4
2016 Aug 25      75          15          4
2016 Aug 26      75           5          2
2016 Aug 27      75           5          2
2016 Aug 28      75           5          2
2016 Aug 29      75          15          4
2016 Aug 30      75          25          5
2016 Aug 31      75          18          5
2016 Sep 01      75          15          4
2016 Sep 02      80          15          4
2016 Sep 03      85          12          4
2016 Sep 04      90          12          4
2016 Sep 05      90          15          4
2016 Sep 06      90          15          4
2016 Sep 07      90           8          3
2016 Sep 08      90          10          3
2016 Sep 09      90           5          2
2016 Sep 10      90           5          2
(NOAA)