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Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Aug 29 0520 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity  22 - 28 August 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels the majority of the period with low levels reached on 28 August due to an isolated C1/Sf flare  at 28/2128 UTC from Region 2583 (N13, L=023, class/area Dao/030 on 28 Aug). Regions 2579 (N12, L=034, class/area Dao/090 on 23 Aug) and 2581 (N12, L=337, class/area Cao/110 on 28 Aug) were the largest spot groups on the visible disk, but were in a decay phase as of 24 and 28 August, respectively. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 22 August, moderate levels on 23-24 August, and
high levels from 25-28 August. The maximum flux reached 2,334 pfu at 27/1705 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1-minor storm levels during the period. The beginning of the period, solar wind conditions were nominal with solar wind speeds between 350 km/s and 420 km/s. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 22 August. By 23 August, total field increased to around 14 nT with the solar wind speed increasing to around 550 km/s as a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into geoeffective position. By midday on 24 August, total field had decreased to near 5 nT, however solar wind speeds remained elevated until late on 25 August when they began to decline. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to
G1-minor storm levels on 23-24 August, followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 25-27 August. Quiet conditions were observed on 28 August under a nominal solar wind environment.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 August - 24 September 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels expected on 31 August-12 September and again from 21-24 September due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 29 August-08 September, 13-14 September, 17 September, and 19-21 September with G1-minor storm levels likely on 29-30 August due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 29 0520 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html #
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2016-08-29
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2016 Aug 29      85          20          5
2016 Aug 30      82          18          5
2016 Aug 31      82          10          3
2016 Sep 01      85          15          4
2016 Sep 02      85          12          4
2016 Sep 03      80          10          3
2016 Sep 04      80           8          3
2016 Sep 05      78          15          4
2016 Sep 06      78          15          4
2016 Sep 07      78           8          3
2016 Sep 08      78          10          3
2016 Sep 09      78           5          2
2016 Sep 10      78           5          2
2016 Sep 11      80           5          2
2016 Sep 12      82           5          2
2016 Sep 13      82          10          3
2016 Sep 14      82           8          3
2016 Sep 15      82           5          2
2016 Sep 16      82           5          2
2016 Sep 17      80           8          3
2016 Sep 18      80           5          2
2016 Sep 19      80          15          4
2016 Sep 20      80          12          4
2016 Sep 21      80           8          3
2016 Sep 22      82           5          2
2016 Sep 23      85           5          2
2016 Sep 24      85           5          2
(NOAA)