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Monday, September 19, 2016

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Sep 19 0130 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html #
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 September 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the period. Region 2585 (N08, L=222, class/area=Ekc/590 on 03 Sep) was the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk this week, however, the region only produced low-level B-class flare activity before rotating out of view early in the period. Region 2592 (N14, L=027, class/area=Bxo/10 on 18 Sep) produced several low-level B-class flares in the latter half of the week, but was relatively simple throughout the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 12-14 Sep, moderate levels on 18 Sep, and were at normal levels on 15-17 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 13, 16-27 Sep and quiet to unsettled on 12, 14-15, and 18 Sep under a mostly nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 September - 15 October 2016


Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a change for C-class flares throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach very high levels on 02-05 Oct with high levels expected on 21-25, 29 Sep-01 Oct, and 06-11 Oct following solar wind
enhancements associated with the influence of multiple coronal hole high speed streams. Electron flux is expected to be at normal or normal to moderate levels throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 28-30 Sep and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 19-20 Sep and 01 Oct due to the anticipated influence of multiple,
recurrent coronal hole high speed streams. Active conditions are expected on 21 Sep and 02-05 Oct with generally quiet or quiet to unsettled conditions likely throughout the remainder of the period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 19 0130 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2016-09-19
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2016 Sep 19      85          18          5
2016 Sep 20      85          20          5
2016 Sep 21      85          12          4
2016 Sep 22      85           8          3
2016 Sep 23      85           5          2
2016 Sep 24      88           5          2
2016 Sep 25      90           5          2
2016 Sep 26      95          15          3
2016 Sep 27     100          10          3
2016 Sep 28     100          35          6
2016 Sep 29     100          35          6
2016 Sep 30     100          35          6
2016 Oct 01      95          30          5
2016 Oct 02      95          18          4
2016 Oct 03      90          15          4
2016 Oct 04      90          15          4
2016 Oct 05      90          15          4
2016 Oct 06      90           5          2
2016 Oct 07      85           5          2
2016 Oct 08      85           5          2
2016 Oct 09      85           5          2
2016 Oct 10      85           5          2
2016 Oct 11      85           5          2
2016 Oct 12      85           5          2
2016 Oct 13      85           5          2
2016 Oct 14      80           5          2
2016 Oct 15      80           5          2
(NOAA)