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Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Feb 13 0049 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 February 2017

Solar activity reached low levels on 09 Feb due to C-class flare activity from Region 2635 (N14, L=304, class/area=Dai/110 on 10 Feb). Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the remainder of the period and no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels each day of this period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 06 Feb, quiet to unsettled levels on 07, 10-11 Feb, and quiet throughout the remainder of the period.



Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 February - 11 March 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for isolated C-class flare activity throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 13, 16-18, 22-26, 28 Feb, and 01-11 Mar. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 28 Feb and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 27 Feb, 01-02 Mar due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream influence. Active geomagnetic field activity is expected on 15, 23 Feb, and 03-04 Mar. Quiet and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected for the remainder of the period under a nominal
solar wind regime.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Feb 13 0049 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-02-13
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Feb 13      78           5          2
2017 Feb 14      78           8          3
2017 Feb 15      78          12          4
2017 Feb 16      78          10          3
2017 Feb 17      80           8          3
2017 Feb 18      80           8          3
2017 Feb 19      80           5          2
2017 Feb 20      82           5          2
2017 Feb 21      85           5          2
2017 Feb 22      82          10          3
2017 Feb 23      80          15          4
2017 Feb 24      80          10          3
2017 Feb 25      78          10          3
2017 Feb 26      78           5          2
2017 Feb 27      76          25          5
2017 Feb 28      76          30          6
2017 Mar 01      75          25          5
2017 Mar 02      75          20          5
2017 Mar 03      73          15          4
2017 Mar 04      73          15          4
2017 Mar 05      72          15          3
2017 Mar 06      72           8          3
2017 Mar 07      72           5          2
2017 Mar 08      73           5          2
2017 Mar 09      74           5          2
2017 Mar 10      75           5          2
2017 Mar 11      75           5          2
(NOAA)