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Monday, February 27, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Feb 27 0113 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 February 2017

Solar activity was at very low levels on 20-21 and 25-26 Feb with low levels observed on 22-24 Feb. Region 2638 (N19, L=111, class/area Dso/150 on 22 Feb) produced three C-class flares, one each on 22-24 Feb. The largest of these was a C4/1f flare observed on 22/1327 UTC. Several weak CMEs were observed during the period, but none of them had an Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 20, 22-24 and 26 Feb. High levels were observed on 21 and 25 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet to active levels with an isolated minor storm (G1-Minor) interval early on 24 Feb. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 20-21 and 25-26 Feb under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to isolated G1 levels were observed on 22-24 Feb under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds reached a peak of 671 km/s at 24/0516 UTC. Total field (Bt) reached a peak of near 12 nT late on 23 Feb while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -10 nT, again late on 23 Feb. Phi angle was in a predominately positive solar sector throughout the summary period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 February - 25 March 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for isolated C-class activity during the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 27 Feb, 01-13, 19-20 and 24-25 Mar. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 28 Feb, 14-18 and 21-23 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 01-02 and 16 Mar due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active geomagnetic field activity is expected on 28 Feb, 03-04, 15, 17-19 and 21-24 Mar due to CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Feb 27 0113 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-02-27
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Feb 27      79           5          2
2017 Feb 28      77          12          4
2017 Mar 01      77          25          5
2017 Mar 02      79          20          5
2017 Mar 03      79          15          4
2017 Mar 04      79           8          3
2017 Mar 05      75           5          2
2017 Mar 06      72           5          2
2017 Mar 07      72           5          2
2017 Mar 08      73           5          2
2017 Mar 09      74           5          2
2017 Mar 10      75           5          2
2017 Mar 11      75           5          2
2017 Mar 12      75           5          2
2017 Mar 13      75           5          2
2017 Mar 14      75           5          2
2017 Mar 15      74          10          3
2017 Mar 16      75          20          5
2017 Mar 17      77          15          4
2017 Mar 18      79          10          3
2017 Mar 19      80           8          3
2017 Mar 20      82           5          2
2017 Mar 21      82           8          3
2017 Mar 22      82          10          3
2017 Mar 23      82          15          4
2017 Mar 24      80           8          3
2017 Mar 25      80           5          2
(NOAA)