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Monday, March 13, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Mar 13 0238 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 March 2017

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the reporting period. No CMEs observed in available SOHO LASCO imagery were determined to be Earth-directed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 06-08 Mar. Normal to high levels were observed on 09 Mar and moderate to high levels were observed on 10 Mar. On 11 Mar, a return to normal to high levels were observed, with moderate to high levels ending the period on 12 Mar. Sustained levels of electron flux was caused by continuous influence of a CH HSS throughout the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) levels during the reporting period due to a negative polarity, CH HSS that persisted throughout most of the week. On 06 Mar, quiet to G1 (Minor) levels represented a peak in geomagnetic activity caused by 650 km/s solar wind speeds, the highest levels observed from the CH HSS. A very gradual decline in solar wind speeds caused unsettled to active conditions on 07 Mar followed by quiet to active levels on
08-10 Mar. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 11 Mar. An isolated period of active conditions, associated with a sustained period of southward Bz, was observed early on 12 Mar which quickly transitioned to quiet conditions for the rest of the day.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 March - 08 April 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 13-17 Mar, 19-20 Mar, 24 Mar, and 29 Mar - 08 Apr due to influences from multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 18 Mar, 21-23 Mar, and 25 Mar-28 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G2 (Moderate) levels over the next 27 days. Unsettled conditions are likely on 13-17 Mar, 19 Mar, 22 Mar, 24 Mar, 01 Apr, 03-05 Apr and 08 Apr. Active conditions are likely on 18 Mar, 23 Mar, 01 Apr, and 03-05 Apr. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 30-31 Mar and 02 Apr. G2 (Moderate) conditions are likely on 28-29 Mar. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the influences of multiple,
anticipated, recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet conditions are likely for the remaining days of the outlook period.




Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Mar 13 0238 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-03-13
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Mar 13      70           8          3
2017 Mar 14      72           8          3
2017 Mar 15      72           8          3
2017 Mar 16      72           8          3
2017 Mar 17      74           8          3
2017 Mar 18      74          12          4
2017 Mar 19      74          10          3
2017 Mar 20      74           5          2
2017 Mar 21      74           5          2
2017 Mar 22      76          10          3
2017 Mar 23      76          15          4
2017 Mar 24      76           8          3
2017 Mar 25      76           5          2
2017 Mar 26      74           5          2
2017 Mar 27      74           5          2
2017 Mar 28      74          35          6
2017 Mar 29      74          30          6
2017 Mar 30      72          20          5
2017 Mar 31      72          18          5
2017 Apr 01      72          15          4
2017 Apr 02      72          20          5
2017 Apr 03      72          15          4
2017 Apr 04      70          12          4
2017 Apr 05      70          12          4
2017 Apr 06      70          10          3
2017 Apr 07      70           5          2
2017 Apr 08      70           8          3
(NOAA)