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Monday, October 16, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Oct 16 0358 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 October 2017

Solar activity was at very low levels and spotless with the exception of the emergence of new Region 2684 (N11, L=312, class/area Bxo/010 on 15 Oct) late in the period. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed.  No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 09-11 Oct, high levels on 12-14 Oct, and very high levels on 15 Oct. The largest flux of the period was 59,298 pfu observed at 15/1645 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm levels. The period began with solar wind speeds between 300-400 km/s and total field ranging from 1-5 nT on 09-10 Oct. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 09 Oct and quiet to unsettled levels on 10 Oct. By late on 10 Oct, total field and solar wind speed began to increase as a polar connected, positive polarity, coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. Total field increased to 12 nT at 11/1115 UTC and solar wind speed gradually increased to a maximum of 737 km/s at 14/0550 UTC. Solar wind speed slowly decreased thereafter to near 550 km/s by the end of the period.

The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 11-12 Oct and 14-15 Oct. Quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm levels were observed on 13 Oct.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 October - 11 November 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. A chance for C-flares is likely on 19 Oct-03 Nov with the return of old Regions 2682 (S10, L=126) and 2683 (N13, L=111).  No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high to very high levels on 16-18 Oct and again on 27 Oct and 11 Nov. High levels are expected on 19-21 Oct, 25-26 Oct, 28 Oct-01 Nov and on 08-10 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influences.  Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 16-22 Oct, 24-29 Oct, 01-02 Nov, and 07-11 Nov. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 24-25 Oct and 07-11 Nov and G2 (Moderate) levels are likely on 25 Oct and 10 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Oct 16 0358 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-10-16
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Oct 16      70          18          4
2017 Oct 17      70          10          3
2017 Oct 18      70          12          4
2017 Oct 19      72          12          4
2017 Oct 20      72           8          3
2017 Oct 21      72           8          3
2017 Oct 22      72           8          3
2017 Oct 23      72           5          2
2017 Oct 24      72          35          5
2017 Oct 25      72          45          6
2017 Oct 26      72          15          4
2017 Oct 27      72          15          4
2017 Oct 28      72          10          3
2017 Oct 29      72           8          3
2017 Oct 30      72           5          2
2017 Oct 31      72           5          2
2017 Nov 01      72           8          3
2017 Nov 02      72          10          3
2017 Nov 03      70           5          2
2017 Nov 04      70           5          2
2017 Nov 05      70           5          2
2017 Nov 06      70           5          2
2017 Nov 07      70          28          5
2017 Nov 08      70          30          5
2017 Nov 09      70          40          5
2017 Nov 10      70          28          6
2017 Nov 11      70          26          5
(NOAA)