Pages

Monday, November 06, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Nov 06 0429 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 October - 05 November 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels. There were no observable flares reported and no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 30 Oct - 01 Nov, moderate levels on 02 Nov, and
normal levels on 03-05 Nov. The largest flux of the period was 3,668 pfu observed at 30/1610 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.

The period began under nominal solar wind conditions with wind speeds ranging between 260 to 320 km/s and total field measurements between 1 and 4 nT. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 30 Oct - 01 Nov. At approximately 02/0100 UTC, wind speeds began to increase and total field became enhanced due to the arrival of a weak, negative polarity, coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speed continued to increase to a period high of 458 km/s at 04/1701 UTC, total field achieved a max of 14 nT at 02/1115 UTC and the Bz  component of the interplanetary magnetic field dropped to a low of -7 nT at 02/1944 UTC as a result of this feature. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active conditions on 02-03 Nov.

The remainder of the period was indicative of waning CH HSS influence with decreasing wind speeds and less enhanced total field. Quiet conditions were observed on 04-05 Nov.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 November - 02 December 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period (06 Nov - 02 Dec) due to an absence of returning sunspots and a spotless solar disk. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to be at high levels on 08-15, 17-18, 21-28 Nov with very high levels on 11-14 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 06-12, 15-17, 20-22, 29-30 Nov, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 07-11, 20-22 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Nov 06 0429 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-11-06
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Nov 06      71          10          3
2017 Nov 07      70          27          5
2017 Nov 08      70          30          5
2017 Nov 09      70          30          5
2017 Nov 10      70          28          5
2017 Nov 11      70          25          5
2017 Nov 12      70          10          3
2017 Nov 13      70           5          2
2017 Nov 14      71           5          2
2017 Nov 15      72          10          3
2017 Nov 16      73          10          3
2017 Nov 17      75          10          3
2017 Nov 18      75           5          2
2017 Nov 19      75           5          2
2017 Nov 20      75          20          5
2017 Nov 21      75          20          5
2017 Nov 22      75          20          5
2017 Nov 23      75           5          2
2017 Nov 24      75           5          2
2017 Nov 25      75           5          2
2017 Nov 26      75           5          2
2017 Nov 27      75           5          2
2017 Nov 28      75           5          2
2017 Nov 29      75          10          3
2017 Nov 30      75          10          3
2017 Dec 01      72           5          2
2017 Dec 02      71           5          2
(NOAA)