Pages

Monday, July 16, 2018

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Jul 16 0150 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 July 2018

Solar activity was very low throughout the reporting period. The visible disk produced several plage regions but no visible spots were observed. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. Moderate levels were reached on 09-11 Jul and 13-17 Jul.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with several periods of unsettled observed on 11-12 Jul. A slow-moving transient signature was observed in the solar wind midday on 10 Jul from a CME first observed in STEREO AHEAD COR 2 imagery early on 05 Jul. A decrease in solar wind speeds was observed, after the onset, which lowered winds from near 385 km/s to 309 km/s at its slowest point on 11 Jul. Total magnetic field strength peaked at arrival with 13 nT. Bz was mostly oriented either near neutral or northward which produced a quiet to unsettled geomagnetic response throughout the duration of the transient.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 July - 11 August 2018

Solar activity is expected to remain very low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from moderate to high levels. Moderate to high level are expected over 21-31 Jul and normal to moderate levels are
expected through the remainder of the outlook period. All enhancements in the greater than 2 MeV electron flux are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) at geomagnetic storm levels. Unsettled levels are expected on 16 Jul, 21 Jul and 24 Jul. Active levels are expected on 20 Jul and 22 Jul; G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on 23 Jul. All increases in the geomagnetic activity are in anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Jul 16 0150 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2018-07-16
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2018 Jul 16      72           8          3
2018 Jul 17      72           5          2
2018 Jul 18      72           5          2
2018 Jul 19      72           5          2
2018 Jul 20      72          16          4
2018 Jul 21      72           8          3
2018 Jul 22      72          10          4
2018 Jul 23      70          18          5
2018 Jul 24      68           8          3
2018 Jul 25      68           5          2
2018 Jul 26      68           5          2
2018 Jul 27      68           5          2
2018 Jul 28      68           5          2
2018 Jul 29      68           5          2
2018 Jul 30      68           5          2
2018 Jul 31      68           5          2
2018 Aug 01      68           5          2
2018 Aug 02      70           5          2
2018 Aug 03      72           5          2
2018 Aug 04      72           5          2
2018 Aug 05      72           5          2
2018 Aug 06      72           5          2
2018 Aug 07      72           5          2
2018 Aug 08      72           5          2
2018 Aug 09      72           5          2
2018 Aug 10      72           5          2
2018 Aug 11      72           5          2
(NOAA)