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Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Mar 18 0333 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 March 2019

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Region 2734 (N09,  L=60, class/area=Cro/60 on 06 Mar) briefly contained spots early this period, but was quiet. A slow-moving CME off the east limb observed early on 12 Mar was determined to have a possible earth-directed component with an early 17 Mar arrival, based on ENLIL model output.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 11-12 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels early on 17 Mar, likely due in part to the arrival of the 12 Mar CME. Quiet to active conditions were observed on 16 Mar and were quiet or quiet to unsettled conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 March - 13 April 2019

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach very high levels on 29-30 Mar with high levels expected on 27-28, 31 Mar and 01-07 Apr.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 27-28 Mar and active conditions are expected on 26, 29 Mar and 12 Apr, all due to the influence of multiple recurrent CH HSSs.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Mar 18 0333 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-03-18
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Mar 18      69           8          3
2019 Mar 19      69           5          2
2019 Mar 20      69          10          3
2019 Mar 21      69           5          2
2019 Mar 22      69           5          2
2019 Mar 23      69           5          2
2019 Mar 24      69           5          2
2019 Mar 25      69           5          2
2019 Mar 26      69          12          4
2019 Mar 27      69          30          5
2019 Mar 28      69          28          5
2019 Mar 29      70          15          4
2019 Mar 30      71           8          3
2019 Mar 31      71           5          2
2019 Apr 01      71           5          2
2019 Apr 02      71           8          3
2019 Apr 03      71           8          3
2019 Apr 04      71           5          2
2019 Apr 05      71           5          2
2019 Apr 06      71           5          2
2019 Apr 07      71           5          2
2019 Apr 08      71           5          2
2019 Apr 09      71           5          2
2019 Apr 10      70           5          2
2019 Apr 11      69           5          2
2019 Apr 12      69          15          4
2019 Apr 13      69           5          2
(NOAA)