Pages

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Jun 10 0314 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 June 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels. No sunspots were observed on the visible disk and there was an absence of significant flare activity. A dissapearing solar filament (DSF), centered near S05E52, was observed in GONG optical imagery at 03/0715 UTC but was not observed in LASCO imagery. This CME was believed to have impacted Earth midday on 08 June. An additional DSF, centered near the S05E13, was observed at 07/2145 UTC and is expected to have a possible geoeffective component with an anticipated arrival of 12 June.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 03 June and of moderate levels on 04-08 June in response to elevated wind speeds from a negative polarity, coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The peak electron flux during the reporting period was 2,270 pfu at 03/1755 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 08 June and unsettled levels on 09 June as a result of the aforementioned 03 June CME. Quiet conditons were observed throughout the
remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 June - 06 July 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 11-13 and 26-30 June, with moderate levels expected on 10, 14-20, 25 June and 01-03 July in response to elevated wind speeds associated with recurrent CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 12 and 25 June, unsettled levels on 10-11, 13, 24, 26 June and 06 July due to CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are expected through out the remainder of the outlook period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Jun 10 0315 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-06-10
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Jun 10      68           8          3
2019 Jun 11      68          10          3
2019 Jun 12      68          15          4
2019 Jun 13      68           8          3
2019 Jun 14      68           5          2
2019 Jun 15      68           5          2
2019 Jun 16      68           5          2
2019 Jun 17      68           5          2
2019 Jun 18      68           5          2
2019 Jun 19      68           5          2
2019 Jun 20      68           5          2
2019 Jun 21      68           5          2
2019 Jun 22      68           5          2
2019 Jun 23      68           5          2
2019 Jun 24      68           8          3
2019 Jun 25      68          12          4
2019 Jun 26      68           8          3
2019 Jun 27      68           5          2
2019 Jun 28      68           5          2
2019 Jun 29      68           5          2
2019 Jun 30      68           5          2
2019 Jul 01      68           5          2
2019 Jul 02      68           5          2
2019 Jul 03      68           5          2
2019 Jul 04      68           5          2
2019 Jul 05      68           5          2
2019 Jul 06      68          10          3
(NOAA)