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Monday, August 12, 2019

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Aug 12 0624 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 August 2019

Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 05 Aug and at high levels from 06-11 Aug. The largest flux of the period was 26,161 pfu observed at 07/1930 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels over the period. The period began as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) was becoming geoeffective. Total field increased to 23 nT by 05/0855 UTC as the Bz component became variable between +11 nT/-19 nT. Solar wind speed reached a maximum of 745 km/s at 06/0750 UTC.

The geomagnetic field responded with four consecutive periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels on 05 Aug followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 06 Aug. Two further enhancements in solar wind speed were observed on 08 Aug and on  09-10 Aug. The first peaked around 575 km/s while the second peaked at approximately 650 km/s. However, no significant increases in total field were observed. Quiet conditions were observed on 07 Aug with quiet to unsettled levels on 08-11 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 August - 07 September 2019

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the forecast period (12 Aug-07 Sep).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on12-16 Aug and again on 02-07 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach unsettled levels on 12 Aug, 16 Aug, 26-28 Aug, and 06-07 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 01-02 Sep with G1 (Minor) storming likely on 01 Sep also due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Aug 12 0625 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-08-12
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Aug 12      67           8          3
2019 Aug 13      67           5          2
2019 Aug 14      67           5          2
2019 Aug 15      67           5          2
2019 Aug 16      67           8          3
2019 Aug 17      67           5          2
2019 Aug 18      67           5          2
2019 Aug 19      67           5          2
2019 Aug 20      67           5          2
2019 Aug 21      67           5          2
2019 Aug 22      67           5          2
2019 Aug 23      67           5          2
2019 Aug 24      67           5          2
2019 Aug 25      67           5          2
2019 Aug 26      67           8          3
2019 Aug 27      67           8          3
2019 Aug 28      67           8          3
2019 Aug 29      67           5          2
2019 Aug 30      67           5          2
2019 Aug 31      67           5          2
2019 Sep 01      67          38          5
2019 Sep 02      67          14          3
2019 Sep 03      67           5          2
2019 Sep 04      67           5          2
2019 Sep 05      67           5          2
2019 Sep 06      67           8          3
2019 Sep 07      67           8          3
(NOAA)