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Monday, October 14, 2019

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Oct 14 0407 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 October 2019

Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 08-13 Oct and at high levels on 07 Oct. The maximum flux of the period was 1,930 pfu observed at 07/1745 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period started off at nominal levels with solar wind speeds in the 350-405 km/s range. by 09 Oct, total field increased to 11 nT at 09/2135 UTC followed by an increase in solar wind speed to approximately 490 km/s as a weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into geoeffective positon. Solar wind speed remained enhanced through late on 11 Oct. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active conditions on 09-10 Oct and quiet to unsettled levels on 11 Oct.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 October - 09 November 2019

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 16 and 24 Oct and again on 04-09 Nov. High levels are expected on 14-15 Oct and on 25 Oct-03 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 14-15 Oct due to possible weak CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 21 Oct and 24-28 with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 24-25 Oct due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Oct 14 0407 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-10-14
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Oct 14      68           8          3
2019 Oct 15      68           8          3
2019 Oct 16      68           5          2
2019 Oct 17      68           5          2
2019 Oct 18      68           5          2
2019 Oct 19      68           5          2
2019 Oct 20      68           5          2
2019 Oct 21      68          15          4
2019 Oct 22      68           5          2
2019 Oct 23      68           5          2
2019 Oct 24      68          18          5
2019 Oct 25      68          25          5
2019 Oct 26      68          12          4
2019 Oct 27      68          10          3
2019 Oct 28      68           8          3
2019 Oct 29      68           5          2
2019 Oct 30      68           5          2
2019 Oct 31      68           5          2
2019 Nov 01      68           5          2
2019 Nov 02      68           5          2
2019 Nov 03      68           5          2
2019 Nov 04      68           5          2
2019 Nov 05      68           5          2
2019 Nov 06      68           5          2
2019 Nov 07      68           5          2
2019 Nov 08      68           5          2
2019 Nov 09      68           5          2

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