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Monday, May 04, 2020

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 May 04 0250 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 April - 03 May 2020

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Four new-cycle sunspot groups were numbered this period, the most prominent of which was Region 2760 (S07, L=307, class/area=Cro/20 on 30 Apr). No significant solar flare activity was observed.

A filament eruption from the northern hemisphere midday on 27 Apr resulted in a very slow-moving CME. Modeling of the event suggested the CME may arrive at Earth on 02-03 May. A solar wind disturbance commensurate with the passage of a weak, slow-moving transient was detected on 03 May, however, the source of this disturbance is inconclusive at the time of this writing.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was generally quiet and quiet to unsettled this period under a largely nominal solar wind environment. Isolated unsettled activity late on 03 May is thought to be associated with the passage of the 27 Apr CME.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 May - 30 May 2020

Solar activity is expected to be very quiet throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be generally quiet or quiet-to-unsettled throughout the outlook period.


Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 May 04 0250 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-05-04
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 May 04      70           8          3
2020 May 05      70          10          3
2020 May 06      70           8          3
2020 May 07      70           5          2
2020 May 08      70           5          2
2020 May 09      70           5          2
2020 May 10      70           5          2
2020 May 11      70           5          2
2020 May 12      70           5          2
2020 May 13      70           5          2
2020 May 14      70           5          2
2020 May 15      70           5          2
2020 May 16      70           5          2
2020 May 17      70           5          2
2020 May 18      70          10          3
2020 May 19      70           8          3
2020 May 20      70           5          2
2020 May 21      70           5          2
2020 May 22      70           5          2
2020 May 23      70           5          2
2020 May 24      70           5          2
2020 May 25      70           5          2
2020 May 26      70           5          2
2020 May 27      70           5          2
2020 May 28      70           5          2
2020 May 29      70           5          2
2020 May 30      70           5          2
(NOAA)