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Monday, December 07, 2020

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Dec 07 0118 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 November - 06 December 2020

Solar activity reached low levels this week due to C-class flare activity. A total of ten C-class flares were observed this period.
Region 2786 (S17, L=343, class/area=Cko/1000 on 25 Nov) produced three C1 flares, Region 2787 (N30, L=303, class/area=Axx/10 on 30 Nov) produced one C1 flare, and Region 2790 (S22, L=252,
class/area=Hsx/110 on 03 Dec) produced six C-class flares. The largest event of the period was a C3/Sf from Region 2790 at 01/0427 UTC. 

Multiple CMEs associated with flare activity and filament eruptions, predominately off the east limb, were observed this week, however, none were Earth-directed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became enhanced on 30 Nov following a CME off the NE limb on 26 Nov, and remained enhanced through 05 Dec. The greater than 10 Mev proton flux reached a peak of 6.5 pfu at 01/0655
UTC. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 02-03 Dec, with normal to moderate flux levels observed throughout the remainder of the summary period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 30 Nov, and quiet on 01-06 Dec, under a nominal solar wind regime. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 December - 02 January 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 20-26 and 29-30 Dec. Normal to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is anticipated to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 19 Dec, with active levels likely on 18 and 24 Dec, due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the
remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 07 0118 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-12-07
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Dec 07      90           5          2
2020 Dec 08      90           5          2
2020 Dec 09      88           5          2
2020 Dec 10      88          10          3
2020 Dec 11      88           8          3
2020 Dec 12      86           5          2
2020 Dec 13      86           5          2
2020 Dec 14      86           5          2
2020 Dec 15      86           5          2
2020 Dec 16      84           5          2
2020 Dec 17      85           5          2
2020 Dec 18      88          12          4
2020 Dec 19      92          20          5
2020 Dec 20      92           8          3
2020 Dec 21      92           5          2
2020 Dec 22      92           5          2
2020 Dec 23      92           8          3
2020 Dec 24      92          10          4
2020 Dec 25      94           8          3
2020 Dec 26      94           5          2
2020 Dec 27      94           5          2
2020 Dec 28      94           5          2
2020 Dec 29      96           5          2
2020 Dec 30      94           5          2
2020 Dec 31      92           5          2
2021 Jan 01      90           5          2
2021 Jan 02      90           5          2
(NOAA)