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Monday, December 14, 2020

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Dec 14 0119 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 December 2020

Solar activity was reached low levels on 07 Dec due to a long-duration C7/1f flare observed at 07/1632 UTC from Region 2790 (S22, L=252, class/area=Hsx/80 on 10 Dec). The associated halo CME arrived at Earth just after 10/0000 UTC as an interplanetary shock, and with the driver directed south of the ecliptic plane. Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the remainder of the period with B-class flare activity. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate throughout the period. 

The geomagnetic field reached active levels early on 10 Dec due to the arrival of the 07 Dec CME. Quiet or quiet to unsettled conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 December - 09 January 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 21-25 Dec, with normal to moderate levels expected to persist throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 20-22 Dec due to CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 14 0119 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-12-14
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Dec 14      82           5          2
2020 Dec 15      83           5          2
2020 Dec 16      83           5          2
2020 Dec 17      84           8          3
2020 Dec 18      85           5          2
2020 Dec 19      85           5          2
2020 Dec 20      85          12          4
2020 Dec 21      85          15          4
2020 Dec 22      85          12          4
2020 Dec 23      85          10          3
2020 Dec 24      85           8          3
2020 Dec 25      86           5          2
2020 Dec 26      86           5          2
2020 Dec 27      86           5          2
2020 Dec 28      86           5          2
2020 Dec 29      85           5          2
2020 Dec 30      84           5          2
2020 Dec 31      83           5          2
2021 Jan 01      82           5          2
2021 Jan 02      82           5          2
2021 Jan 03      82           5          2
2021 Jan 04      82           5          2
2021 Jan 05      82          10          3
2021 Jan 06      82          10          3
2021 Jan 07      82           5          2
2021 Jan 08      82           5          2
2021 Jan 09      82           5          2
(NOAA)