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Monday, December 28, 2020

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2020 Dec 28 0139 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity - 21 - 27 December 2020

Solar activity was at very low levels from 21-27 Dec. The largest flare observed was a B7.3 from Region 2795 (S18, L=318, class/area Dao/200 on 24 Dec) on 24 Dec. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels on 24-27 Dec due to CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 21-23 Dec. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 21 and 23 Dec, and unsettled levels on 22, 24-25 Dec, all due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet levels were observed on 26-27 Dec. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity - 28 December - 23 January 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the period with a slight chance for low levels on 28 Dec - 04 Jan, and 17-23 Jan due to the flare potential from Region 2795 (S18, L=318, class/area Dao/200 on 24 Dec). 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 28-29 Dec and 20-23 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 5-6 Jan and 18-20 Jan, and quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Dec, 3 Jan, and 21 Jan, all due to recurrent CH HSS influences.

Mostly quiet levels are expected on the remaining days in the outlook period. 



Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 28 0139 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-12-28
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Dec 28      88           5          2
2020 Dec 29      88           8          3
2020 Dec 30      88           5          2
2020 Dec 31      88           5          2
2021 Jan 01      88           5          2
2021 Jan 02      87           5          2
2021 Jan 03      86           8          3
2021 Jan 04      85           5          2
2021 Jan 05      84          10          3
2021 Jan 06      84          10          3
2021 Jan 07      84           5          2
2021 Jan 08      84           5          2
2021 Jan 09      84           5          2
2021 Jan 10      84           5          2
2021 Jan 11      84           5          2
2021 Jan 12      84           5          2
2021 Jan 13      84           5          2
2021 Jan 14      84           5          2
2021 Jan 15      85           5          2
2021 Jan 16      86           5          2
2021 Jan 17      84           5          2
2021 Jan 18      88          10          3
2021 Jan 19      88          10          3
2021 Jan 20      88          10          3
2021 Jan 21      88           8          3
2021 Jan 22      88           5          2
2021 Jan 23      88           5          2
(NOAA)