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Monday, March 15, 2021

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2021 Mar 15 0111 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 March 2021

Solar activity was very low on 08 and 10-14 Mar. Low levels of solar activity were observed on 09 Mar due to a C1 flare at 09/1235 UTC, from Region 2808 (S19, L=035, class/area, Cao/30 on 12 Mar). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 08-12 and 14 Mar, with moderate levels observed on 13 Mar. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 14 Mar, with active levels on 13 Mar due to recurrent, negative-polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed for the remainder of the reporting period (08-12 Mar). 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 March - 10 April 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flare events, throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 15-16, 20-27, 30-31 Mar, and 01-10 Apr. Moderate levels are expected during the remainder of the outlook period (17-19, 28-29 Mar). 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 28-30 Mar and 10 Apr, with active conditions likely on 15, 19-21 Mar and 09 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled levels are anticipated throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 15 0111 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-03-15
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 Mar 15      78          12          4
2021 Mar 16      78           5          2
2021 Mar 17      78           5          2
2021 Mar 18      78           8          3
2021 Mar 19      77          18          4
2021 Mar 20      77          18          4
2021 Mar 21      76          18          4
2021 Mar 22      76          12          3
2021 Mar 23      76           8          3
2021 Mar 24      76           5          2
2021 Mar 25      77           5          2
2021 Mar 26      78           5          2
2021 Mar 27      78           5          2
2021 Mar 28      78          25          5
2021 Mar 29      78          20          5
2021 Mar 30      78          20          5
2021 Mar 31      78          10          3
2021 Apr 01      78           5          2
2021 Apr 02      79          15          3
2021 Apr 03      80           8          3
2021 Apr 04      81           5          2
2021 Apr 05      82           5          2
2021 Apr 06      82           5          2
2021 Apr 07      82           5          2
2021 Apr 08      81          15          3
2021 Apr 09      80          18          4
2021 Apr 10      80          20          5
(NOAA)