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Monday, March 08, 2021

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2021 Mar 08 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 March 2021

Solar activity was very low on 01 and 03-07 Mar. Low levels of solar activity were observed on 02 Mar due to a C1/Sf flare at 02/0003 UTC from Region 2807 (S18, L=154, class/area=Cro/30 on 04 Mar). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was moderate on 01-02 Mar, with high levels observed on 03-07 Mar. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions on 01 Mar, and G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 02-03 Mar, due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Active conditions were observed on 04, and 06-07 Mar due to CH HSS influence. Quiet
conditions prevailed on 05 Mar. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 March - 03 April 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low-to-low throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 08, 20-27 Mar, and 30 Mar- 03 Apr. Moderate flux levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms on 18-19 Mar, with active conditions likely on 12-13, 15, 20-21, and 29-30 Mar, due to the influence of multiple CH HSSs. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 01 1603 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-03-01
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 Mar 01      73          18          5
2021 Mar 02      74          15          4
2021 Mar 03      74           8          3
2021 Mar 04      73           5          2
2021 Mar 05      73           5          2
2021 Mar 06      73          15          4
2021 Mar 07      74           5          2
2021 Mar 08      70           5          2
2021 Mar 09      74           5          2
2021 Mar 10      76           5          2
2021 Mar 11      72           5          2
2021 Mar 12      71          15          4
2021 Mar 13      72          10          4
2021 Mar 14      70           5          2
2021 Mar 15      71          15          4
2021 Mar 16      72           8          3
2021 Mar 17      71           5          2
2021 Mar 18      73          18          5
2021 Mar 19      76          20          5
2021 Mar 20      75          20          4
2021 Mar 21      76          18          4
2021 Mar 22      78          12          3
2021 Mar 23      81           8          3
2021 Mar 24      80           5          2
2021 Mar 25      80           5          2
2021 Mar 26      79           5          2
2021 Mar 27      78           5          2
(NOAA)