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Monday, May 03, 2021

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 May 03 0219 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 April - 02 May 2021

Solar activity was reached low levels on 26 Apr. A C1 flare from Region 2816 (S24, L=262, class/area Dai/120 on 19 Apr) at 26/0230 UTC was the largest of the period. A DSF was also observed on 26 Apr, lifting off around 26/1635 UTC. Most of the ejecta appears to have been headed to the SW of Earth 's orbit, though the lack of available STEREO-A coronagraph imagery increased uncertainty around determining if an Earth-directed component was present. All of the other active regions were in decay and mostly quiet as they rotated towards the western limb. Only low-level B-class activity was observed over 27 Apr - 02 May. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was mostly normal to moderate with the exception of a brief high level (peak flux of 1,810 pfu reached at 30/1550 UTC) reached on 30 Apr. Geomagnetic field activity range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) levels were observed on 26 Apr in response to enhancements from a CME that left the Sun on 22 Apr. Total magnetic field strength was weakly enhanced reaching 7 nT while Bz was sustained southward to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds were steadily elevated to speeds between ~480-500 km/s prior to the G1 event. Geomagnetic conditions would decrease to quiet - unsettled levels on 27 Apr and into quiet over 28 Apr - 01 May as solar wind parameters returned to nominal levels. A slight increase to unsettled conditions was observed on 02 May due to what appears to be influenced from the current sheet with a possible embedded weak transient. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 May - 29 May 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels from 03-13 May and 25-29 May. High levels are likely on 14-24 May in response to multiple, recurrent, negative polarity CH HSSs. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 13 May are likely to increase to G2 (Moderate) levels on 14 May. Active conditions are likely on 03-04 May, 12 May, 15-17 May and 20 May. Unsettled levels are likely on 05 May, 11 May, and 21 May. All anticipated elevations in geomagnetic activity are in response to influence from recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to at quiet levels. 

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 03 0219 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-05-03
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 May 03      70          12          4
2021 May 04      70          12          4
2021 May 05      72          10          3
2021 May 06      72           5          2
2021 May 07      72           5          2
2021 May 08      72           5          2
2021 May 09      74           5          2
2021 May 10      74           5          2
2021 May 11      74           8          3
2021 May 12      75          12          4
2021 May 13      75          20          5
2021 May 14      77          30          6
2021 May 15      79          15          4
2021 May 16      79          15          4
2021 May 17      79          12          4
2021 May 18      77           5          2
2021 May 19      77           5          2
2021 May 20      77          15          4
2021 May 21      77          10          3
2021 May 22      75           5          2
2021 May 23      75           5          2
2021 May 24      75           5          2
2021 May 25      74           5          2
2021 May 26      74           5          2
2021 May 27      72           5          2
2021 May 28      70           5          2
2021 May 29      70           5          2
(NOAA)