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Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Jun 14 0205 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 June 2021

Solar activity was at low levels due to multiple C-class flares from an unnumbered region beyond the east limb. The largest C-class flare was a C3.7 at 09/0907 UTC from Region 2831 (N24, L=79, class/area Hrx/10 on 07 June). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery. However, on 11-13 June coronagraph imagery was not available due to site maintenance at NASA. Availability of LASCO coronagraph imagery expected to resume on 15 June. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the highlight period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 08-11, and 13 June. Unsettled to active levels were reached on 07 June due to influences from the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Unsettled to active levels were reached on 13 June due to the combination of the likely arrival of a slow-moving CME from 06 June and CH HSS influences. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 June - 10 July 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with Region 2831 due to return to the visible disk from 21 June-05 July. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 20-22 June due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Normal to moderate levels are expected
for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 17 June due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 15, 16, and 18 June also due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jun 14 0205 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-06-14
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 Jun 14      77           8          3
2021 Jun 15      77          10          4
2021 Jun 16      77          12          4
2021 Jun 17      76          20          5
2021 Jun 18      76          12          4
2021 Jun 19      76           5          2
2021 Jun 20      78           5          2
2021 Jun 21      80           5          2
2021 Jun 22      80           5          2
2021 Jun 23      80           5          2
2021 Jun 24      78           5          2
2021 Jun 25      77           5          2
2021 Jun 26      77           7          3
2021 Jun 27      77           5          2
2021 Jun 28      77           5          2
2021 Jun 29      78           5          2
2021 Jun 30      78           5          2
2021 Jul 01      78           5          2
2021 Jul 02      78           5          2
2021 Jul 03      78           5          2
2021 Jul 04      78           5          2
2021 Jul 05      78           5          2
2021 Jul 06      78           5          2
2021 Jul 07      78           5          2
2021 Jul 08      79           5          2
2021 Jul 09      79           8          3
2021 Jul 10      79           8          3
(NOAA)