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Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2021 Sep 20 0042 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 September 2021

Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2871 (S28, L=359, class/area=Dao/60 on 19 Sep) produced four C-class flares throughout the week, the largest of which was a C3 flare observed at 17/0420 UTC, and was the primary source of solar activity. A filament eruption which lifted off at around 13/0100-0200 UTC and centered near N35W15, produced an Earth-directed CME that arrived at Earth early on 17 Sep. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate throughout the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached active and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 17 Sep, and active conditions early on 18 Sep, due to the arrival of the 13 Sep CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 13 Sep, and quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 September - 16 October 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 29 Sep-03 Oct and 05-08 Oct. Normal to moderate levels are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 28 Sep, with active conditions likely on 25, 29 Sep, and 05, 10 Oct, due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled and mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 20 0042 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-09-20
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 Sep 20      75           5          2
2021 Sep 21      75           8          3
2021 Sep 22      75           8          3
2021 Sep 23      77          10          3
2021 Sep 24      80           8          3
2021 Sep 25      80          12          4
2021 Sep 26      82          10          3
2021 Sep 27      82          10          3
2021 Sep 28      82          15          5
2021 Sep 29      84          12          4
2021 Sep 30      84          10          3
2021 Oct 01      84           5          2
2021 Oct 02      84           5          2
2021 Oct 03      84           5          2
2021 Oct 04      84           8          3
2021 Oct 05      84          12         4
2021 Oct 06      82           5          2
2021 Oct 07      80           5          2
2021 Oct 08      80           5          2
2021 Oct 09      78           5          2
2021 Oct 10      78          12         4
2021 Oct 11      78           5          2
2021 Oct 12      75           5          2
2021 Oct 13      75           5          2
2021 Oct 14      75           5          2
2021 Oct 15      75           5          2
2021 Oct 16      75           5          2
(NOAA)