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Monday, December 06, 2021

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2021 Dec 06 0224 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 November - 05 December 2021

Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels. Region 2898 (S24, L=236, class/area Dao/140 on 27 Nov) produced an M1 flare at 05/0719 UTC, the largest of the period. The region had recently rotated around the W limb before producing the event. With the exception of Region 2904 (S27, L=80, class/area Bxo/30), which developed recently in the SW quadrant, all other regions were either in decay or quietly rotated off of the visible disk. 

Other Earth-directed activity included a ~40-degree filament eruption centered near S45W10, beginning around 05/1103 UTC in SDOAIA 304 imagery. A subsequent faint CME signature was noted in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 05/1412 UTC. Preliminary analysis and modeling suggest a slow-moving Earth-directed component that'll arrive at Earth 09-10 Dec. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from moderate to high levels. High levels were reached on 01-05 Dec, with the highest recorded flux of 4,870 pfu at 03/1520 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 29-30 Nov. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions were observed late on 30 Nov in response to the onset of influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind conditions surrounding the event consisted of a total magnetic field strength increase to a peak of 15 nT, the Bz component rotated as far south as -12 nT and solar wind speeds increased from ~350 km/s to ~475 km/s. Active conditions were observed after as the HSS proper set in over 01 Dec, and on 29 Nov in response to waning weak transient influence. Periodic unsettled conditions were observed over 02-05 Dec. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 December - 01 January 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from moderate to high levels. High levels are likely on 06-08 Dec, 11-12 Dec, 20-23 Dec, and 29 Dec-01 Jan. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. All increases in electron flux are due to the influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 17 Dec and 27-28 Dec; active conditions are likely on 13 Dec, 18 Dec, and 29 Dec; unsettled levels are likely on 06-07 Dec, 10-11 Dec, 14 Dec, 19-20 Dec and 30 Dec - 01 Jan. All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are in anticipation of influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.    

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Dec 06 0224 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-12-06
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 Dec 06      82           8          3
2021 Dec 07      80           8          3
2021 Dec 08      80           5          2
2021 Dec 09      80           5          2
2021 Dec 10      82          10          3
2021 Dec 11      82           8          3
2021 Dec 12      82           5          2
2021 Dec 13      80          12          4
2021 Dec 14      80          10          3
2021 Dec 15      82           5          2
2021 Dec 16      85           5          2
2021 Dec 17      85          15          5
2021 Dec 18      85          12          4
2021 Dec 19      87          10          3
2021 Dec 20      87           8          3
2021 Dec 21      87           5          2
2021 Dec 22      87           5          2
2021 Dec 23      86           5          2
2021 Dec 24      86           5          2
2021 Dec 25      86           5          2
2021 Dec 26      86           5          2
2021 Dec 27      86          15          5
2021 Dec 28      84          18          5
2021 Dec 29      82          12          4
2021 Dec 30      82           8          3
2021 Dec 31      82           8          3
2022 Jan 01      82           8          3
(NOAA)