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Monday, January 03, 2022

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2022 Jan 03 0417 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 December - 02 January 2022

Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were observed on 28 Dec due to an M1 flare at 0401 UTC and an M1/Sf at 1611 UTC from Region 2918 (N19, L=211, Class/area Dki/280 on 25 Dec). Region 2918 also produced another M1 flare at 0730 UTC on 01 Jan as it was rotating off the NW limb. The largest region on the disk was Region 2916 (S15, L=189, class/area Ekc/480 on 27 Dec) and was responsible for 2 M-class flares on 21 Dec, but only managed 1 C-class flare this reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit only reached high levels on 27 Dec with a peak flux of 3,210 pfu observed at 27/1325 UTC. For the rest of the period, the electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period began with a weak positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) that began after 27/0833 UTC. Total field reached a maximum of 15 nT at 27/1357 UTC followed by a maximum solar wind speed of 538 km/s at 28/1224 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 27 Dec followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 28 Dec. On 29 Dec, a late enhancement in total field reaching 21 nT at 30/0036 UTC was followed by a brief increase in solar wind speed to 515 km/s. The geomagnetic response was quiet to unsettled on 29-30 Dec. Solar wind conditions began to wane on 31 Dec with only quiet levels observed. On 01-02 Dec another positive polarity CH HSS was observed beginning at approximately 01/0115 UTC.

Total field increased to around 10 nT while the solar wind increased to near 530 km/s by 01/0900 UTC. Solar wind speed remained enhanced through the rest of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 01 Jan followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 02 Jan. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 January - 29 January 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through 15 Jan. There is a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 16-29 Jan with the return of old Regions 2916 and 2918. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 19-23 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS influence. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 03, 11-12, 15-18, 23-26, and 28-29 Jan and reach active levels on 16 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 03 0418 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2022-01-03
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2022 Jan 03      88           8          3
2022 Jan 04      88           5          2
2022 Jan 05      85           5          2
2022 Jan 06      85           5          2
2022 Jan 07      85           5          2
2022 Jan 08      85           5          2
2022 Jan 09      85           5          2
2022 Jan 10      90           5          2
2022 Jan 11      95          10          3
2022 Jan 12     100          10          3
2022 Jan 13     115           5          2
2022 Jan 14     115           5          2
2022 Jan 15     115           8          3
2022 Jan 16     120          12          4
2022 Jan 17     120           8          3
2022 Jan 18     120           8          3
2022 Jan 19     120           5          2
2022 Jan 20     120           5          2
2022 Jan 21     120           5          2
2022 Jan 22     120           5          2
2022 Jan 23     120          10          3
2022 Jan 24     120           8          3
2022 Jan 25     110           8          3
2022 Jan 26     100           8          3
2022 Jan 27     100           5          2
2022 Jan 28      95          10          3
2022 Jan 29      90           8          3
(NOAA)