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Monday, February 28, 2022

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Feb 28 0132 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 February 2022

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels throughout the week. Regions 2954 (N17, L=118, class/area=Hsx/120 on 21 Feb) and 2955 (N14, L=107, class/area=Hsx/150 on 22 Feb) were the primary regions on the disk, but remained quiescent throughout the period.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 26 Feb, and was normal to moderate throughout the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 21 Feb and Minor (G1) geomagnetic storm levels on 22 Feb due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions were once again observed on 27 Feb due to another geoeffective positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the week under a background solar wind environment. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 February - 26 March 2022

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 28 Feb-08 Mar, 12-17, and 20-22 Mar in response to enhanced solar wind conditions associated with recurrent CH HSSs. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 28 Feb-01 Mar, 05-06, 11-12, and 19-21 Mar due to multiple recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet and quiet to unsettled field activity is expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 28 0132 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2022-02-28
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2022 Feb 28      99          15          4
2022 Mar 01     102          15          4
2022 Mar 02     105           8          3
2022 Mar 03     105           8          3
2022 Mar 04     105          10          3
2022 Mar 05     102          12          4
2022 Mar 06     102          12          4
2022 Mar 07     101           5          2
2022 Mar 08     101           5          2
2022 Mar 09     101           5          2
2022 Mar 10     100           5          2
2022 Mar 11      99          15          4
2022 Mar 12      99          12          4
2022 Mar 13      99           8          3
2022 Mar 14      98           5          2
2022 Mar 15      95           8          3
2022 Mar 16      95           5          2
2022 Mar 17      96           5          2
2022 Mar 18      97          10          3
2022 Mar 19      98          15          4
2022 Mar 20      99          15          4
2022 Mar 21     100          15          4
2022 Mar 22     100           7          2
2022 Mar 23     101           7          2
2022 Mar 24     102           7          2
2022 Mar 25     102           5          2
2022 Mar 26     102          10          3
(NOAA)