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Tuesday, June 07, 2022

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Jun 06 0147 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 May - 05 June 2022

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels throughout the highlight period. On 30 May, Region 3019 (N11, L=042, class/area Cro/030 on 21 May) produced a C1.5 flare at 30/0027 UTC. Weak C-class activity was also observed from Region 3029 (S18, L=199, class/area Axx/010 on 04 Jun) on 02 Jun and 04 Jun. A 6 degree long filament erupted at 31/2351 UTC, centered near S11W08. A CME was detected in STEREO imagery, first visible at 01/0224 UTC, with a possible Earth-directed component. Another filament eruption was observed at 02/0500 UTC. This 20-degree long filament was centered near S35W35 with a subsequent CME detected in LASCO imagery at 02/0612 UTC and with a possible Earth-directed component. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels through the period. A maximum of 9,720 pfu was observed at 03/1515 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated unsettled levels were observed on 30-31 May due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet levels were observed on 01-05 Jun. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 June - 02 July 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through the outlook period. A chance for moderate levels exists on 08-24 Jun due to the return of old Regions 3014 (N22, L=104) and 3017 (N12, L=089), both M-class flare producers on their last transit. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 26-30 Jun and 01-02 Jul due to CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are anticipated on 06-25 Jun. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 13-17 Jun and 23-26 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 06 0147 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2022-06-06
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2022 Jun 06     100           5          2
2022 Jun 07     105           5          2
2022 Jun 08     105           5          2
2022 Jun 09     105           5          2
2022 Jun 10     110           5          2
2022 Jun 11     110           5          2
2022 Jun 12     110           5          2
2022 Jun 13     110          12          3
2022 Jun 14     110           8          3
2022 Jun 15     115          12          3
2022 Jun 16     115          10          3
2022 Jun 17     115           8          3
2022 Jun 18     120           5          2
2022 Jun 19     125           5          2
2022 Jun 20     125           5          2
2022 Jun 21     120           5          2
2022 Jun 22     110           5          2
2022 Jun 23     100          12          3
2022 Jun 24     100          18          4
2022 Jun 25     100          10          3
2022 Jun 26     100           8          3
2022 Jun 27     100           5          2
2022 Jun 28     100           5          2
2022 Jun 29     100           5          2
2022 Jun 30     100           5          2
2022 Jul 01     100           5          2
2022 Jul 02     100           5          2
(NOAA)