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Tuesday, July 05, 2022

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2022 Jul 04 0139 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 June - 03 July 2022

Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. Low levels were observed on 27 and 30 Jun and 03 Jul with C-class activity observed from Region 3040 (S13, L=325, class/area Cso/160 on 24 Jun). Late on 28 Jun, an 11 degree filament erupted along a channel centered near N23E20. LASCO C2 imagery observed a narrow CME off the W limb with an apparent Earth-directed component. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 27-30 Jun and 01 Jul with a maximum flux value of 6,970 pfu observed at 01/1720 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 02-03 Jul. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels during the period. Unsettled to active levels were observed on 27-28 Jun due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet levels were observed on 29-30 Jun. Unsettled to active levels were observed on 01-03 Jul, with an isolated G1 (Minor) storm interval observed early on 02 Jul due to CME effects from the 28 Jun DSF. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 July - 30 July 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels through the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 08-13, 16-21 and 24-30 Jul due to CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 04-07, 14-15 and 22-23 Jul. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 05-08, 14-17 and 22-25 Jul with active intervals likely on 06-07, 15-16, and 22-23 Jul and G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 06 Jul, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 04 0139 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2022-07-04
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2022 Jul 04     110           5          2
2022 Jul 05     112           8          3
2022 Jul 06     112          25          5
2022 Jul 07     115          12          4
2022 Jul 08     115           8          3
2022 Jul 09     115           5          2
2022 Jul 10     115           5          2
2022 Jul 11     112           5          2
2022 Jul 12     112           5          2
2022 Jul 13     110           5          2
2022 Jul 14     108          10          3
2022 Jul 15     108          15          4
2022 Jul 16     110          12          4
2022 Jul 17     100          10          3
2022 Jul 18      95           8          3
2022 Jul 19      98           8          3
2022 Jul 20      95           8          3
2022 Jul 21      95           8          3
2022 Jul 22      98          12          4
2022 Jul 23      98          15          4
2022 Jul 24     100          10          3
2022 Jul 25     100           8          3
2022 Jul 26     102           5          2
2022 Jul 27     105           5          2
2022 Jul 28     105           5          2
2022 Jul 29     100           5          2
2022 Jul 30     110           5          2
(NOAA)