Pages

Monday, August 15, 2022

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Aug 15 0229 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 

Solar activity was very low with B-class flare activity on 08-10 Aug. Solar activity increased to low levels with C-class flare activity observed on 11-14 Aug. Regions 3076 (N15, L=61, class/area=Dao/170 on 13 Aug) and 3079 (S11, L=77, class/area=Cai/130 on 14 Aug) were responsible for the majority of C-class flare activity throughout the period. At 14/1235 UTC, a long-duration C2 flare and filament eruption were observed from Region 3076. Associated Type-II radio emissions estimated a shock velocity of 629 km/s. The associated CME was first seen in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 14/1248 UTC and is expected to impact Earth on 17 Aug. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit persisted at high levels throughout the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 08 Aug, and active levels on 09 and 11 Aug, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled conditions prevailed on 10 and 12-14 Aug. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 August - 10 September 2022

Solar activity is expected to be predominately low with C-class flare activity and a chance for isolated M-class flare activity throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 15, 18-24 Aug, and 04-10 Sep. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 17-18 Aug due to a combination of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of the 14 Aug CME. Active conditions are predicted on 19-20 Aug due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 27 Aug due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagentic storms are possible on 03-04 Aug, with G1 storms possible on 05 Aug, due to positive polarity CH HSS
effects. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 15 0229 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2022-08-15
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2022 Aug 15     124           5          2
2022 Aug 16     124           5          2
2022 Aug 17     122          20          5
2022 Aug 18     118          25          5
2022 Aug 19     112          18          4
2022 Aug 20     108          12          4
2022 Aug 21     102           8          3
2022 Aug 22     100           5          2
2022 Aug 23     100           5          2
2022 Aug 24      94           5          2
2022 Aug 25      94           5          2
2022 Aug 26      94           5          2
2022 Aug 27      94          12          4
2022 Aug 28      96           8          3
2022 Aug 29      98           8          3
2022 Aug 30     100           8          3
2022 Aug 31     108           5          2
2022 Sep 01     114           5          2
2022 Sep 02     116           5          2
2022 Sep 03     116          24          6
2022 Sep 04     112          28          6
2022 Sep 05     108          18          5
2022 Sep 06     108          10          3
2022 Sep 07     115          14          4
2022 Sep 08     120           8          3
2022 Sep 09     124          10          3
2022 Sep 10     126           8          3
(NOAA)