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Monday, June 26, 2023

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2023 Jun 26 0339 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 June 2023

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Low levels were observed on 23 and 25 Jun. Moderate levels were observed on 19, 21-22, and 24 Jun whereas high levels were observed on 20 Jun. Region 3341 (S16, L=207, class/area Cso/200 on 23 Jun) was responsible for the majority of the M-class activity along with an X1.1 Tenflare (480 sfu at 2695 MHz) at 20/1709 UTC which had associated Type II (1057 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a CME off the Eastern limb at 20/1712 UTC. WSA/ENLIL analysis indicated the potential for a grazing blow late on 23 Jun to early on 24 Jun. Region 3341 produced a total of four M1 flares and one X1 flare. Regions 3337 (N20, L=262, class/area Cso/120 on 21 Jun), 3340 (N23, L=233, class/area Ekc/300 on 25 Jun), and 3342 (S22, L=343, class/area Dao/070 on 20 Jun) also contributed to M-class flare activity. Region 3340 produced an M4 at 22/2344 UTC with associated Type II (534 km/s) and IV radio sweeps along with an associated CME off the SE limb at 23/0414 UTC. The CME was determined to not have an Earth-directed component. Region 3340 developed a Beta-Delta magnetic configuration on 25 Jun as moderate growth and consolidation were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 19-20 and 22-24 Jun due to CH HSS influence. The peak flux was 2,550 pfu observed at 22/1540 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed from 19-23 Jun as solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced between 390-485 km/s and total field ranged from 5-8 nT. On 24-25 Jun, solar wind parameters became enhanced, possibly due to the aforementioned CME from the X1 flare. Total field ranged from 5-12 nT while solar wind speed values increased to nearly 535 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with active to G1 (Minor) storming late on 24 Jun through early on 25 Jun. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 June - 22 July 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on 26
Jun-22 Jul. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 14-21 Jul due to CH HSS influence. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled or active levels on 26 Jun-03 Jul, 8-9 Jul, and 12-22 Jul with G1 (Minor storm levels likely on 12 Jul and G2 (Moderate) levels likely on 13 Jul due to recurrent CH HSS activity. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 26 0339 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2023-06-26
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2023 Jun 26     150           8          3
2023 Jun 27     145          12          4
2023 Jun 28     145          12          4
2023 Jun 29     140           8          3
2023 Jun 30     135           8          3
2023 Jul 01     130          12          4
2023 Jul 02     130          12          4
2023 Jul 03     130           8          3
2023 Jul 04     130           5          2
2023 Jul 05     130           5          2
2023 Jul 06     135           5          2
2023 Jul 07     135           5          2
2023 Jul 08     135          12          4
2023 Jul 09     145           8          3
2023 Jul 10     155           5          2
2023 Jul 11     160           5          2
2023 Jul 12     165          20          5
2023 Jul 13     170          30          6
2023 Jul 14     175           8          3
2023 Jul 15     175           8          3
2023 Jul 16     175           8          3
2023 Jul 17     175           8          3
2023 Jul 18     175           8          3
2023 Jul 19     170           8          3
2023 Jul 20     170           8          3
2023 Jul 21     170           8          3
2023 Jul 22     160           8          3
(NOAA)