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Monday, August 14, 2023

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Aug 14 0226 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 August 2023

Solar activity reached high levels on 07 Aug with three M-class flares (R1/Minor) observed in addition to an X1.5 flare (R3/Strong) at 07/2046 UTC from Region 3386 (N11, L=096, class/area=Dki/250 on 06 Aug); the largest event of the period. Moderate activity levels were observed on 08 Aug with an M3.6/Sf flare observed from Region 3387 (N20, L=069, class/area=Dsi/140 on 06 Aug). Low levels of activity were observed throughout the remainder of the week, with the bulk of C-class activity originating from Regions 3394 (S22, L=342, class/area=Dho/270 on 09 Aug) and 3395 (N13, L=331, class/area=Dai/180 on 12 Aug) over 09-13 Aug. 

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded 10 pfu (S1/Minor) following west limb flare activity on 07 Aug. The S1 event began at 08/0115 UTC, reached a peak of 47 pfu at 09/0025 UTC, and ended at 10/0950 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux slowly decayed
following the end of S1 levels and returned to background levels on 13 Aug. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 09-13 Aug, with normal to moderate levels observed on 07-08 Aug. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels late 07 Aug and early 08 Aug due to an enhanced solar wind environment associated with the arrival of a CME from 04 Aug. Quiet and unsettled levels were observed on 09 Aug due to residual CME effects, and again on 10 and 12 Aug due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet levels were observed on 11 and 13 Aug under nominal solar wind conditions. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 August - 09 September 2023

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels over 17 Aug-03 Sep due to the expected return of multiple regions which produced event-level flares on their previous rotations. Low levels of solar activity are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 17-22, 27-28 Aug, and 07-09 Sep. Normal to moderate levels are expected throughout the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach active levels on 16-18, and 26 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 14 0227 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2023-08-14
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2023 Aug 14     140           5          2
2023 Aug 15     130           5          2
2023 Aug 16     135          12          4
2023 Aug 17     135          15          4
2023 Aug 18     135          12          4
2023 Aug 19     145           8          3
2023 Aug 20     150           5          2
2023 Aug 21     155           5          2
2023 Aug 22     158           5          2
2023 Aug 23     160           5          2
2023 Aug 24     162           5          2
2023 Aug 25     162           5          2
2023 Aug 26     160          12          4
2023 Aug 27     164           5          2
2023 Aug 28     168           5          2
2023 Aug 29     168           5          2
2023 Aug 30     168           5          2
2023 Aug 31     168           5          2
2023 Sep 01     165           5          2
2023 Sep 02     163           5          2
2023 Sep 03     160           5          2
2023 Sep 04     158           5          2
2023 Sep 05     155           5          2
2023 Sep 06     152          10          3
2023 Sep 07     150           8          3
2023 Sep 08     148           8          3
2023 Sep 09     142           5          2
(NOAA)