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Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Aug 28 0230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 August 2023

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate. Region 3415 (S09, L=79, class/area=Dko/350 on 24 Aug) produced the strongest flare of the period, a long-duration M1.4/1n at 25/0109 UTC. Lower M-class X-ray flares (R1 - Minor) were observed from Region 3405 (N10, L=183, class/area=Eso/180 on 16 Aug) and an area around the E limb. The remaining active regions were relatively simple. 

Other activity included a Type II radio sweep on 26 Aug which was associated with activity just past the Sun's visible disk. None of the CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery appeared to on the Sun-Earth line. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was low to moderate levels over the reporting period. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active conditions. A single period of active conditions were observed 27 Aug due to a period of sustained Bz south that reached -7 nT. Only quiet to unsettled conditions were observed for the remainder of the reporting period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 August - 23 September 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) activity throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 07-10 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS influence. The remaining days are likely to be at background to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active conditions are likely on 14 Sep, with unsettled conditions likely on 28-19 Aug, 06-08 Sep, 15-17 Sep and 23 Sep. All elevations in geomagnetic activity are anticipated due to recurrent CH HSS features. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 28 0230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2023-08-28
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2023 Aug 28     148          10          3
2023 Aug 29     150           8          3
2023 Aug 30     150           5          2
2023 Aug 31     152           5          2
2023 Sep 01     150           5          2
2023 Sep 02     145           5          2
2023 Sep 03     140           5          2
2023 Sep 04     145           5          2
2023 Sep 05     150           5          2
2023 Sep 06     150          10          3
2023 Sep 07     152           8          3
2023 Sep 08     156           8          3
2023 Sep 09     156           5          2
2023 Sep 10     150           5          2
2023 Sep 11     148           5          2
2023 Sep 12     148           5          2
2023 Sep 13     145           5          2
2023 Sep 14     145          12          4
2023 Sep 15     150          10          3
2023 Sep 16     155          10          3
2023 Sep 17     160           8          3
2023 Sep 18     168           5          2
2023 Sep 19     168           5          2
2023 Sep 20     168           5          2
2023 Sep 21     168           5          2
2023 Sep 22     165           5          2
2023 Sep 23     160          10          3
(NOAA)