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Monday, February 26, 2024

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Feb 26 0223 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact tact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 February 2024


Solar activity reached high levels on 21 and 22 Feb and moderate levels on 23-25 Feb. The strongest of these events was an X6.3 (R3-Strong) flare at 22/2234 UTC, the strongest so far of the current solar cycle, from Region 3590 (N18, L=223, class/area=Fkc/1450 on 25 Feb), the largest region of the solar cycle so far. The region was responsible for two of other X-class flares, an X1.2 at 21/2307 UTC and an X1.7/2b at 22/0632 UTC, as well as 10 M-class (R1-Minor) flares. Despite the pronounced increase in flare activity, no Earth-directed CMEs were associated with the events from the Region. A Type II radio sweep on 21 Feb as well as a Type II and IV radio sweep on 22 Feb were both associated with events that were off the Sun-Earth line. While there were 13 other numbered active regions on the visible disk this week, they were either quiet or only produced C-class X-ray events. 

Other activity included a filament eruption in the NW quadrant beginning around 21/1500 UTC. Analysis and modeling suggested a glancing blow would be possible around 25 Feb. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet through 23 Feb, with a single isolated period of unsettled observed late on 20 Feb due to weak transient influence. Late on 24 Feb, the arrival of a CME from the filament eruption on 21 Feb was observed. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled conditions that would persist through 25 Feb. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 February - 23 March 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 02 Mar, when Region 3590 (N18, L=223, class/area=Fkc/1450 on 25 Feb) rotates off the visible disk. While flare potential will likely decrease substantially from 02 Mar through the end of the period, a chance for M-class activity will remain due to multiple significant regions on the far side of the Sun due to rotate back onto the visible disk. 

There is a slight chance for proton events (S1-Minor) at geosynchronous orbit through 02 Mar due to the flare potential of Region 3590. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 26-28 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to mostly quiet. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 26 0223 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2024-02-26
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2024 Feb 26     180          12          3
2024 Feb 27     175          10          3
2024 Feb 28     175          10          3
2024 Feb 29     180           5          2
2024 Mar 01     175           5          2
2024 Mar 02     170           5          2
2024 Mar 03     170           5          2
2024 Mar 04     172           5          2
2024 Mar 05     172           5          2
2024 Mar 06     170           5          2
2024 Mar 07     165           5          2
2024 Mar 08     165           5          2
2024 Mar 09     165           5          2
2024 Mar 10     168           5          2
2024 Mar 11     165           5          2
2024 Mar 12     165           5          2
2024 Mar 13     160           5          2
2024 Mar 14     160           5          2
2024 Mar 15     168           5          2
2024 Mar 16     172           5          2
2024 Mar 17     175           5          2
2024 Mar 18     175           5          2
2024 Mar 19     178           5          2
2024 Mar 20     180           5          2
2024 Mar 21     180           5          2
2024 Mar 22     180           5          2
2024 Mar 23     180           5          2
(NOAA)