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Monday, May 27, 2024

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2024 May 27 0142 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 May 2024

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during the period. Low levels were observed on 20, 25 and 26 May. Moderate (R1-Minor) levels were observed on 21-24 May. Region 3679 (S09, L=200, class/area Ekc/500 on 22 May) produced 10 M-class flares, the
largest was an M4.2/1n event at 23/0216 UTC. Region 3689 (S08, L=098, class/area Dso/050 on 22 May) produced a single M-class flare on 23 May. No significant radio events were observed. No significant Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to normal levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from mostly quiet to unsettled levels with a single active period observed late on 23 May. Unsettled to active periods were observed on 23-24 May due to negative CH HSS influence. Unsettled periods were observed late on
25 May through 26 May due to weak positive CH HSS influence. Total field readings approached 10 nT on 24-25 May with southward Bz readings to negative 10 nT late on 23 May. Solar wind readings were at a predominately steady 400 km/s throughout the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 May - 22 June 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at a chance for moderate (R1-R2 / Minor-Moderate) levels due to the return of previous active region 3664 (S17, L=347). There will be a slight chance of S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms from 28 May through 09 Jun upon the return of old region 3664. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at low to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 27-28 May and 08-12 Jun due to the influence of positive polarity CH HSSs. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 29-31 May,01-07 Jun and 13-22 Jun. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 May 27 0142 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact  www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2024-05-27
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2024 May 27     155           8          3
2024 May 28     155           8          3
2024 May 29     155           5          2
2024 May 30     155           5          2
2024 May 31     165           5          2
2024 Jun 01     165           5          2
2024 Jun 02     165           5          2
2024 Jun 03     175           5          2
2024 Jun 04     175           5          2
2024 Jun 05     190           5          2
2024 Jun 06     200           5          2
2024 Jun 07     210           5          2
2024 Jun 08     200          10          3
2024 Jun 09     195          12          4
2024 Jun 10     190           8          3
2024 Jun 11     185          12          4
2024 Jun 12     180          10          3
2024 Jun 13     170           5          2
2024 Jun 14     170           5          2
2024 Jun 15     170           5          2
2024 Jun 16     170           5          2
2024 Jun 17     170           5          2
2024 Jun 18     170           5          2
2024 Jun 19     170           5          2
2024 Jun 20     170           5          2
2024 Jun 21     170           5          2
2024 Jun 22     165           5          2
(NOAA)