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Monday, June 17, 2024

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jun 17 0202 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 June 2024

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Region 3697 (S18, L=350, class/area=Fkc/410 on 03 Jun) produced the strongest flare of the period, an X1.5/Sf flare (R3 - Strong) at 10/1108 UTC. The region also produced two R2 (Moderate) and three R1 (Minor) events
before it rotated around the W limb on 10 Jun. Region 3712 (S26, L=169, class/area=Ekc/1000 on 16 Jun) developed into the most complex region currently on the visible disk. Only R1 events have been produced by this region at the time of this report. 

Other activity included filament channel eruption centered near S38E55 which began around 12/1100 UTC. Later that day, an M1.2/1n flare (R1) was observed from Region 3711 (S08, L=211, class/area=Dao/060 on 10 Jun) at 12/2246 UTC. Ejecta from these two events were analyzed. The results suggested potential for CME influence at Earth with onset over 14-15 Jun. 

No proton events above the S1 (Minor) threshold were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, an enhancement was observed which peaked just below S1 levels over 12-13 Jun due to activity on the Sun's farside late on 11 Jun. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was remained at background levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity was elevated to active levels on 10-11 Jun, likely due to CME activity that occurred on the Sun over 08 Jun. Quiet conditions were observed from 12-14 Jun. Geomagnetic activity increased to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 15 Jun
and active conditions on 16 Jun, likely due to multiple eruptive events on the Sun over 12 Jun. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 June - 13 July 2024

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels over 17-24 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3712 (S26, L=169, class/area=Ekc/1000 on 16 Jun). A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) activity is likely to remain throughout the outlook period due to
the anticipated return of multiple complex regions from the farside of the Sun. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Multiple, recurrent CH HSSs are likely to cause active conditions on 18 Jun and unsettled conditions over 17 Jun, 19-20 Jun, 22-23 Jun, and 30 Jun - 01 Jul. The remainder of the outlook
period is likely to be mostly quiet. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 17 0203 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2024-06-17
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2024 Jun 17     175           8          3
2024 Jun 18     180          15          4
2024 Jun 19     180           8          3
2024 Jun 20     180           8          3
2024 Jun 21     175           5          2
2024 Jun 22     175           8          3
2024 Jun 23     190          10          3
2024 Jun 24     190           5          2
2024 Jun 25     180           5          2
2024 Jun 26     175           5          2
2024 Jun 27     180           5          2
2024 Jun 28     190           5          2
2024 Jun 29     180           5          2
2024 Jun 30     185           8          3
2024 Jul 01     190           8          3
2024 Jul 02     195           5          2
2024 Jul 03     190           5          2
2024 Jul 04     185           5          2
2024 Jul 05     190           5          2
2024 Jul 06     180           5          2
2024 Jul 07     180           5          2
2024 Jul 08     165           5          2
2024 Jul 09     165           5          2
2024 Jul 10     180           5          2
2024 Jul 11     170           5          2
2024 Jul 12     170           5          2
2024 Jul 13     170           5          2
(NOAA)