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Monday, September 23, 2024

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Sep 23 0120 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 September 2024

Solar activity was low with C-class flare activity observed over 16-21 Sep. Solar activity reached moderate levels on 22 Sep due to an M3.7/2n flare at 22/2139 UTC from Region 3835 (); the largest event of the week. Regions 3828 () and 3831 () produced most of the
C-class flare activity observed throughout the week. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) levels at 17/0735 UTC, reached a peak flux of 33.6 pfu at 17/1050 UTC, and decreased below the S1 level at 17/1615 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated over 18-19 Sep, but remained below the
S1 level. Background levels were observed over 20-22 Sep. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 16-17, and 19-22 Sep, and normal to moderate levels were observed on 18 Sep. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 16 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS influences early in the day, followed by the initial arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 13-14 Sep late in the day. Periods of G1-G4 (Minor-Severe) storming were observed on
17 Sep due to sustained CME enhancements. Active conditions were observed again on 18 Sep, with periods of G1 (Minor) storming observed on 19 Sep, as CME influences waned and subsided. Quiet and unsettled conditions were observed on 20 Sep followed by quiet
conditions over 21-22 Sep. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 September - 19 October 2024

Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels throughout the outlook period, with a varying chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 23-26 Sep and 12-15 Oct, with normal to moderate levels expected for the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach unsettled levels on 25-26 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of active conditions are likely on 05-06 Oct due to another positive polarity CH HSS. Periods of active conditions are likely again on 10
Oct, followed by likely periods of G1 (Minor) storming on 11-12 Oct, due to yet another positive polarity CH HSS. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Sep 23 0120 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2024-09-23
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2024 Sep 23     160           5          2
2024 Sep 24     160           5          2
2024 Sep 25     160           8          3
2024 Sep 26     160           8          3
2024 Sep 27     165           5          2
2024 Sep 28     165           5          2
2024 Sep 29     165           5          2
2024 Sep 30     170           5          2
2024 Oct 01     175           5          2
2024 Oct 02     180           5          2
2024 Oct 03     180           5          2
2024 Oct 04     190           5          2
2024 Oct 05     190          10          4
2024 Oct 06     190          10          4
2024 Oct 07     185           5          2
2024 Oct 08     185           5          2
2024 Oct 09     185           5          2
2024 Oct 10     180          10          4
2024 Oct 11     175          20          5
2024 Oct 12     175          19          5
2024 Oct 13     175           5          2
2024 Oct 14     175           5          2
2024 Oct 15     175           5          2
2024 Oct 16     175           5          2
2024 Oct 17     170           5          2
2024 Oct 18     170           5          2
2024 Oct 19     165           5          2
(NOAA)