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Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2008 Apr 08 2024 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
31 March - 06 April 2008

Solar activity was very low to low. Activity increased to low levels on 03 April due to two low-level C-class flares from Region 989 (S12, L = 204, class/area Cso/080 on 29 March). Activity was at very low levels during the remainder of the period with isolated B-class flares from Region 989. A halo CME occurred on late 05 April. The CME was first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 images at 15/1626 UTC. The CME was judged to be back-sided, based upon STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 images and the GOES-10 X-ray signature.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels during 31 March - 03 April. Activity increased to minor storm levels during 04 April. A further increase to major storm levels occurred on 05 April with a brief period of severe storm detected at high latitudes. Activity decreased to minor storm levels on 06 April with a brief major storm period detected at high latitudes. ACE solar wind data indicated Earth entered a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) on 04 April in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (HSS). Interplanetary magnetic field intensity increased to a peak of 15 nT at 04/1758 UTC during the CIR, while IMF Bz reached a minimum of -14 nT at 04/1758 UTC. Earth entered the HSS on 05 April.
Velocities increased through 06 April with a peak of 763 km/sec detected at 06/0858 UTC. Velocities remained elevated during the rest of the period as the HSS continued.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 April - 05 May 2008

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during 09 - 16 April and 23 April - 05 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 09 - 10 April. Mostly quiet conditions are expected during 11 - 21 April. Activity is expected to increase to active to major storm levels during 22 - 24 April due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled levels during 25 - 26 April as the high-speed stream subsides. Quiet conditions are forecast during 27 - 30 April. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 01 - 05 May with minor storm levels likely on 02 May as another recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream affects the f

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2008 Apr 08 2024 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2008 Apr 08
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2008 Apr 09 70 10 3
2008 Apr 10 70 10 3
2008 Apr 11 70 5 2
2008 Apr 12 70 5 2
2008 Apr 13 70 5 2
2008 Apr 14 70 8 3
2008 Apr 15 70 8 3
2008 Apr 16 70 5 2
2008 Apr 17 70 5 2
2008 Apr 18 70 5 2
2008 Apr 19 70 5 2
2008 Apr 20 75 5 2
2008 Apr 21 80 5 2
2008 Apr 22 80 20 5
2008 Apr 23 80 30 6
2008 Apr 24 80 20 5
2008 Apr 25 80 8 3
2008 Apr 26 80 8 3
2008 Apr 27 80 5 2
2008 Apr 28 80 5 2
2008 Apr 29 75 5 2
2008 Apr 30 75 5 2
2008 May 01 75 10 3
2008 May 02 70 20 5
2008 May 03 70 15 4
2008 May 04 70 10 3
2008 May 05 70 15 4
(NOAA)