Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:Issued: 2009 Nov 03 2051 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 October - 01 November 2009
Solar activity was very low to low. The week began with Region 1029 (N17, L=213, class/area Eko/380 on 29 October) as the only spotted region on the disk. The group kept activity at low levels as it produced numerous B-flares and occasional C-flares during 26-28 October. Activity levels decreased to very low levels for 29-30 October with a few B-flares, then returned to low levels with a single C-flare on the 31st, and once again declined to very low levels with a single B-flare on 1 November. Region 1029 rotated around the west limb early on 1 November, leaving behind a spotless disk. In addition to the above activity, a slow coronal mass ejection was observed to enter the LASCO C3 field of view off the southwest limb at 0501 UTC on 31 October which had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 380 km/s. Disk imagery showed the formation of an arcade of coronal loops in the southwest in association with this CME.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was predominantly at normal levels for most of the period with the exception of brief periods of moderate levels on 27, 28, and 29 October.
The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the summary period through most of 29 October. An increase to unsettled levels was observed late on 29 October and intensified to unsettled to active with some minor storm periods at high latitudes from 0000-1200 UTC on 30 October. Activity levels returned to quiet for the remainder of the interval. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated a sector transition from positive orientation (away) to negative orientation (towards) between 0553 UTC on 29 October through early on 01 November. During the transition of this solar sector boundary the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) showed an enhancement of total field up to about 11 nT and the Z-component(in GSM coordinates), Bz, rotated from positive 10 nT (at 1059 UTC on 29 October) through -7 nT (at 2300 UTC on 30 October). The interval of enhanced negative Bz was well associated with the increase in geomagnetic activity seen late on the 29th through midday on the 30th.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 30 November 2009
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There may be a small increase in background levels from 15-27 November due to the return of Region 1029.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels through the period.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for 04 November but is expected to increase to mostly unsettled on 05 November due to possible effects from the CME that occurred on 31 October (as described above). Quiet conditions should return on 3 November, followed by a small increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 7 November due to a recurrent high speed stream. Activity levels should return to predominantly quiet levels for 8- 25 November. A small increase to unsettled levels is possible due to recurrence on 26 November. Activity is expected to return to mostly quiet levels for 27-30 November.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt:Issued: 2009 Nov 03 2051 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2009 Nov 03
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 Nov 04 70 5 2
2009 Nov 05 70 8 3
2009 Nov 06 70 5 2
2009 Nov 07 70 7 2
2009 Nov 08 70 5 2
2009 Nov 09 70 5 2
2009 Nov 10 70 5 2
2009 Nov 11 70 5 2
2009 Nov 12 70 5 2
2009 Nov 13 70 5 2
2009 Nov 14 70 5 2
2009 Nov 15 72 5 2
2009 Nov 16 72 5 2
2009 Nov 17 74 5 2
2009 Nov 18 74 5 2
2009 Nov 19 74 5 2
2009 Nov 20 75 8 3
2009 Nov 21 75 5 2
2009 Nov 22 75 5 2
2009 Nov 23 75 5 2
2009 Nov 24 75 5 2
2009 Nov 25 75 5 2
2009 Nov 26 75 8 3
2009 Nov 27 72 5 2
2009 Nov 28 72 5 2
2009 Nov 29 70 5 2
2009 Nov 30 70 5 2
(NOAA)